Bracing For An “October Surprise”

If you live in a swing state, or, like us, have been receiving spam texts from a U.S. House or Senate candidate begging you for money, this news will be welcome: Election 2024 will be over in less than five weeks.

As the country heads into the final stretch, the campaign for control of the White House is incredibly tight. In the RealClearPolitics national average of polls, Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow, two percentage point advantage. The number is well within the margin of error. Battleground state polls from Nevada to Pennsylvania also are very close and fall within the margin of error.

So, while many Americans have made up their minds at this point — most pollsters estimate only about three percent of U.S. voters are still undecided — how those voters break this year certainly could make a difference.

Enter a potential “October surprise” — a piece of breaking news that paints a candidate in a negative light and that would not only determine which candidate undecided voters select, but also could convince some swing voters to reconsider their current preference.

What is the history of the “October surprise,” how often have we seen them in presidential races, and what potential shocks are the Harris and Trump campaigns bracing for this year?

Let’s take a look.

The History Of The “October Surprise”

As the Washington, D.C.-based newspaper Politico tells it, late in his campaign for reelection in 1840, President Martin Van Buren “had a trick up his sleeve that he thought would secure him a second term in office.” He knew federal prosecutors were planning to charge top Whig politicians in New York with fraud for allegedly paying Pennsylvanians to travel to the Empire State to vote multiple times in New York’s 1838 elections. “The prosecutors, members of Van Buren’s Democratic party, did not announce the charges until mid-October, aiming to maximize the indictment’s electoral impact,” Politico said.

Whig William Henry Harrison still won the election, and while Van Buren’s gambit was a shock, this story is not the origin of the term “October surprise.” In fact, according to CNN, the term “October surprise” initially had no connection to politics. The phrase was coined in the early 20th century and used to refer to a department store clothing sale that fell during the fall.

Earlier this week, David Greenberg, a Rutgers University professor of history and journalism and media studies and an expert on U.S. political and cultural history, spoke to Rutgers Today about the political history of the “October surprise.”

As Greenberg explained, the term was politicized and popularized during the 1980 presidential campaign when then-President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 yesterday, was running for reelection. President Carter was trying to free U.S. hostages held in Iran. “The October Surprise was going to be his last-minute success in getting them out,” Greenberg said. “Obviously, it never happened.”

Instead, as Greenberg noted, some observers suggested the campaign for the eventual White House victor, Ronald Reagan, conspired with the Iranians to hold the hostages through the election. “This gambit, though never proven,” was thought to be the true “October surprise.”

October Surprises Have Proliferated In Recent Years

Since the term became popular 44 years ago, many presidential election years have seen a surprise or two in October. And the definition has shifted a bit. What was once an event or issue directly related to a candidate, surprises now include natural disasters or other circumstances that are not caused by a candidate, but that can show a candidate’s ability to handle a challenging event. (If President Joe Biden were on the ballot this year, this week’s port strike or Iranian missile strike against Israel might certainly qualify.)

In October 1992, Caspar Weinberger, who served as defense secretary during the Reagan-George H.W. Bush administration, was indicted for his role in the Iran-Contra scandal. At this point, a recession and sluggish economic recovery had the first President Bush badly behind in the polls, but the indictment did not help matters. Bill Clinton prevailed in November 1992.

Just days before the 2000 election, voters learned then-candidate George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in the 1970s. The younger Bush still managed to win the White House, besting sitting Vice President Al Gore. (Hanging chads, anyone?)

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy struck the northeast on October 29, providing President Barack Obama a last-minute opportunity to appear “presidential,” and to receive a bear hug from then-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican. President Obama easily won reelection that year.

In 2016, the infamous Access Hollywood tape of then-candidate Donald Trump was released at the beginning of October, but that was not the only surprise in store. On October 28, then-Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey announced that the agency was reopening its investigation into Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server — an issue that had dominated the campaign but, Democrats thought, had been dispensed with months earlier when the FBI announced it had concluded its investigation with no evidence of criminality.

Clinton had led in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for most of year, and was seven points ahead on October 18 and 5.6 points ahead on October 27. While she won the popular vote that year, she lost the White House.

CNN noted there were several “surprises” in the fall of 2020: the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, President Trump’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis, a New York Times report that found the sitting president had paid only $750 in federal income taxes in his first year as president, and recordings of Melania Trump complaining about the public’s view of her in light of child separation at the U.S.-Mexico border.

President Trump had been trailing his challenger, Joe Biden, in the RealClearPolitics average of polls all year. The October surprises did not help his ailing campaign, but probably were not the reason he lost the White House in 2020.

What Shocks Could Erupt This Month?

An “October surprise,” by definition is, of course, supposed to be something truly unexpected. Still, based on political history and the candidates’ own records, there are some big events for which the Trump and Harris camps are bracing.

The Hill says these matters fall into five categories:

• A new video or audio clip. For Vice President Harris, the problem might be a new clip of her taking a controversial policy position, especially on energy policy where she has tried to moderate her stances. For Trump, The Hill says the threat comes from “closed-door remarks by Trump to donors” that “could create a firestorm or provide fodder for the Harris campaign, such as when the former president promised wealthy donors tax cuts in a potential second term.”
• A major weather event. Indeed, with Hurricane Helene, this event already has happened and is affecting the swing states of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. With a new depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico, Mother Nature might have more to say about the November 2024 elections.
• More political violence. “One of the gravest potential October surprises would be violence targeting candidates, election workers, staff, or other officials,” The Hill Former President Trump already has been the target of two assassination attempts in the last few months.
• Another Trump-Harris debate. At this point, former President Trump is adamant he does not want another debate. A change of heart would be a surprise and each candidate’s performance could affect how those undecided voters eventually cast their ballots.
• Broader war breaks out. According to The Hill, further turmoil in the Middle East presents a big challenge for Democrats. “Such a war could further inflame tensions among Democrats in particular, as the party has been divided over the Biden administration’s support for Israel over the past year,” The Hill “It would also create a potential opening for Trump to go on offense on foreign policy. While Harris has argued Trump can’t be trusted to maintain alliances and that he has cozied up to dictators, the former president has pointed to conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East to argue the world is less safe than it was when he was in office.”

Former White House candidate, Secretary of State, and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is bracing for an “October surprise.” But it is not a natural disaster, war, or video that she is worried about. She told PBS’s “Firing Line” last week that she is bracing for a social media disinformation campaign from Russia, Iran, or China.

According to Rutgers’ Greenberg, an “October surprise” would need to be truly monumental in order to determine the outcome of this year’s presidential election. “A true October surprise — a genuinely big news event, the way the release of the American hostages in Tehran would have been — could still shake up the presidential race,” Greenberg told Rutgers Today. “But these little stories, which we might call pseudo-October surprises, are not likely to alter the shape of the campaign.”