Election Day 2025 is now in the books. Voters went to the polls in several states around the country yesterday, including in California, New Jersey, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. As we reported two weeks ago in this column, off-year elections like this one may — or may not — be a harbinger of what’s to come in the following year’s midterm congressional elections. After the votes were counted last night, the Democrats are likely to argue that they received a strong mandate from voters one year out from the midterms. The GOP, on the other hand, will seek to position last night’s results as anything other than a referendum on President Donald Trump’s and national Republicans’ policies over the last 10 months.
But what is reality? What actually happened at the polls yesterday, and what could it portend for control of the U.S. House and Senate next year? Additionally, are there any other recent public surveys that could offer insight into the potential outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections?
Let’s take a look.
What Happened On Tuesday
There were six big races yesterday: gubernatorial campaigns in both New Jersey and Virginia; the New York City mayoral race; a special election for a vacant U.S. House seat in Texas; a ballot measure in California calling for U.S. congressional districts in the state to be redrawn; and a ballot measure in Colorado calling for higher taxes to pay for school lunches.
Democrats prevailed in each matchup. Here’s what happened in each of those races.
In the New Jersey governor’s race, current U.S. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill battled former Republican state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. Rep. Sherrill headed into Election Day with a single-digit polling lead, which made state Democrats nervous given the overwhelming advantage Democrats typically have in statewide elections in New Jersey. In the end, Democrats needn’t have been anxious. Sherrill was declared the winner early on election night. With 95 percent of the vote counted by early this morning, she appears to have beaten Ciattarelli by double digits, 56-43 percent.
In the Virginia gubernatorial race, former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) faced off against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in a race to succeed term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican. Spanberger went into Election Day leading the polls, and she dominated on Tuesday. As of early this morning, Spanberger led 57.5 percent to 42.3 percent with nearly 97 percent of the vote counted across the commonwealth.
Down ballot in Virginia yesterday, Jay Jones (D) sought to unseat incumbent state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R). The race was close going into the final stretch after, in October, it was revealed that Jones sent text messages in 2022 wishing for graphic violence against a Republican political opponent. Despite the October surprise, Jones prevailed in the contest, beating Miyares by about six percentage points, with only 3.5 percent of ballots still to be counted. And in the Virginia House of Delegates – the lower chamber of the state legislature, where all 100 seats were up for grabs last night – Democrats appear as of this morning to have added at least 13 seats to their majority.
The New York City mayor’s race was a three-way campaign, meanwhile. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I), and Curtis Sliwa (R) were all on the ballot. With Mamdani consistently leading in the polls, for weeks Republicans had been calling on Sliwa to drop out so that he would not split support with Cuomo. On Monday, President Donald Trump even endorsed Cuomo, an arch political rival during Trump’s first term in the White House, in an effort to stave off a win by Mandani. In the end, Mamdani won handily. In fact, with 90.5 percent of the vote counted by early this morning, it looks like he received a larger share of the vote (50.4 percent) than Cuomo (41.6 percent) and Sliwa (7.1 percent) combined.
In California, voters opined on a ballot measure, Proposition 50, which would amend the state constitution to allow the use of new U.S. congressional district maps that were approved by the Democratic-controlled legislature in response to measures in GOP-held states that rewrote district lines. The measure was overwhelmingly approved by Californians yesterday. Nearly two-thirds of voters voted in favor of the proposition, with about 70 percent of the ballots having been counted as of this morning. With Prop 50’s passage, California expects to add five Democratic House seats to its congressional delegation after the midterm elections next year.
Down in Texas, voters in the Houston area decided who would fill the seat for the 18th congressional district, which has been vacant since Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) died in March. To win, a candidate needed to earn 50 percent of the vote or the race would result in a runoff election to take place in February 2026. In a crowded field of 16 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, with about 78 percent of the vote counted, it appears two Democrats, Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards, will go head-to-head a few months from now, meaning Democrats will hold this seat, not giving an inch up to Republicans’ narrow majority in the lower chamber of Congress.
One more measure that voters approved last night that Democrats can herald: Colorado voters were asked whether to approve a ballot measure to increase their taxes by $95 million annually in order to pay for the Healthy School Meals for All Program. In the broader context of DOGE, the federal government shutdown, and a national conversation about the government’s role in addressing the affordability crisis, the ballot question became a referendum on voters’ attitudes towards higher taxes and increased government spending. With 82 percent of the vote counted, the measure appears to have been approved by a margin of more than 16 points.
What Exit Polls Indicate About Voter Vibes
While the results from the ballot box make it clear it was a difficult night for the GOP, exit polls — surveys taken after a person leaves a polling place that ask how they voted and why they voted the way they did — bolster this point. As CNN put it, “Last November, Donald Trump won a return to the White House amid broad national dissatisfaction with the state of the country. A year later, CNN exit polling finds voters expressing similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments — this time, helping to fuel a sweep of Democratic victories.”
In particular, CNN’s exit polls found:
- Even Good Vibes About The GOP Were Not Enough To Dampen Democratic Support. CNN found a majority of voters in Virginia approved of the job Glenn Youngkin, the state’s outgoing GOP governor, did in office. Still, about one-quarter of these individuals voted for a Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, to succeed him.
- Republicans Losing On Immigration? In Virginia, over half of voters said the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far. In California, more than 60 percent of voters shared this view. Additionally, most voters said Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) should not cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement efforts.
- Voters Remain Worried About The Cost Of Living. In New Jersey, about 7 in 10 voters said property tax rates are a major problem where they live, and nearly 6 in 10 said the same of energy costs. In New York City, 60 percent of voters said the rising cost of living is the biggest issue facing the city and in California, more than 80 percent of voters said the cost of living where they live is unaffordable. In that state, the economy far outpaced immigration, health care, crime, or climate change as the top issue on voters’ minds as they entered the polls.
NBC exit polls had more bad news for Republicans: voters deeply disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. In the key battleground state of Virginia, for example, 41 percent of voters said they approve of Trump’s performance, while 56 percent disapprove. The trend was similar in New Jersey, where only 43 percent of voters in the Garden State approve of President Trump, while 55 percent disapprove.
But Democrats shouldn’t necessarily celebrate. High Trump disapproval does not mean Democrats are popular. “[N]either the Republican nor the Democratic Party is seen in particularly positive terms,” NBC News reported. “In Virginia, New Jersey, and California, more voters expressed unfavorable than favorable views of the Democratic Party. Views of the Republican Party are not quite as negative, but still, the party was not seen in favorable terms by a majority in any state surveyed.”
What Other Surveys Have To Say About 2026
One survey question Republicans and Democrats will keep a close eye on going into next year’s midterm elections is the “generic ballot” query. This question simply asks which party a voter would prefer to see in power. According to the RealClearPolitics tracking of this metric, Democrats currently enjoy a 3.6 percentage point advantage on this question.
That’s not nearly as high as it was for Democrats the last time they claimed a majority in the U.S. House. In 2018, when Democrats took back the lower chamber of Congress from Republicans after President Trump’s first two years in office, the party enjoyed an 8.4 percentage point average lead on generic ballot questions.
On Monday, Punchbowl summed up some other worrying polls for Republicans. For example:
- According to an NBC poll, 45 percent of Americans blame Speaker Mike Johnson (R) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R) for the 36-day government shutdown. Only 33 percent of Americans blame Democrats.
- According to a new Washington Post-ABC poll, only 41 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the presidency, versus 59 percent. Among independents, only 30% approve, with 69 percent disapproving of Trump’s performance.
- On the economy, only 37 percent of voters approve while 62 percent disapprove, according to The Post poll.
The president’s job approval numbers are particularly distressing for the GOP. Why? “The president’s job approval has a strong impact on the outcome of midterm House elections,” Brookings Institution scholar William A. Galston wrote in August. “Although there are wide variations, the overall correlation is clear: The higher his job approval, the lower the losses that his party will experience. As Election Day [2026] nears, the correlation becomes tighter.”
Republicans and Democrats will both be watching that metric over the next 12 months.