A Lame Duck?

President Joe Biden took the stage Monday night at the Democratic National Convention (DNC). He received a nearly three-minute standing ovation and spoke for almost an hour.

Many in the media considered the speech the president’s swan song, a cap on a more than 50-year career in Washington. But, as of Monday, President Biden had exactly five months (and a few hours on January 20, 2025) — or about one-eighth of his presidential term — still ahead of him.

How does he plan to spend that time and are there any historical precedents for what he might accomplish in his time as a lame duck president?

A Focus On Foreign Policy

While the stock market took Americans on a ride earlier this month, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P seem to have stabilized. The latest government reports on inflation indicate prices are not rising nearly as fast as they were a year or two ago. The relative economic calm at home is not matched by what is happening abroad. Iran reportedly hacked the Trump campaign, the Middle East is in turmoil, and the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage.

Just like another former president who chose not to run for a second term, Lyndon Baines Johnson, President Biden is likely to largely focus on foreign policy during his remaining time in office.

In July, The Associated Press reported that President Biden “badly wants Israel and Hamas to agree to his proposed three-phase cease-fire deal to bring home remaining Israeli hostages and potentially pave the way for an end to the nine-month-old war in Gaza.” To that end, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced this week that Israel has agreed to a plan to break the impasse over a cease-fire in Gaza. After a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken called on Hamas to come back to the negotiating table.

Blinken also said the current moment is a “decisive” one and could be the last opportunity to free Israeli hostages and secure a cease-fire. “It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process,” Blinken said. “So we’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way move us away from getting this deal over the line, or for that matter, escalating the conflict to other places and to greater intensity.”

In Ukraine, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN that “President Biden is determined to put Ukraine in a position to prevail and ensure that Russia fails in its effort to conquer Ukraine.”

Other foreign policy priorities also are on the table.

According to other news reports, over the next five months, the president will up his engagement with India and nations in Africa in an effort to blunt China’s growing influence around the world. National Security Adviser Sullivan also promised that the White House will soon release a “major national security memorandum on artificial intelligence.”

Three (Or More) Priorities For Domestic Policy

As CNN reported, on an early August call with Biden administration political appointees, White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients outlined areas of focus for the next five months. In addition to foreign policy, the White House has signaled that the Biden administration intends to: continue to implement key legislation the president already has signed into law; lower costs by continuing to focus on student debt relief and prescription drug prices; and defend Americans’ personal freedoms and civil rights.

If the White House’s recently announced “Time is Money” initiative is any indication, President Biden also will continue to focus on consumer protection.

“Time is Money” proposed new federal actions that will “take on corporate tricks and scams like excessive paperwork, long wait times, and more that pad the profits of big business at the expense of everyday Americans’ time and money.” In a fact sheet, the White House pledged to work with:

• The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to make it easier to cancel subscriptions and memberships;
• The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to require cash refunds for cancelled or significantly changed flights;
• The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) to create a system that allows Americans to submit health insurance claims online;
• The FCC, HHS, DOL, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to prevent companies from sending consumers “through a maze of menu options and automated recordings” when they have problems with service;
• The FTC to ensure accountability for companies that provide bad service;
• The CFPB to issue rules or guidance to crack down on “ineffective and time-wasting” chatbots used by banks and other financial institutions; and
• The U.S .Department of Education to issue new guidance to schools regarding how they can make processes less time-consuming for parents.

Of course, shortly after announcing the end of his campaign, President Biden also proposed significant reforms to the Supreme Court, including term limits and a constitutional amendment to limit immunity from criminal prosecution for presidents. It’s unlikely these proposals will go anywhere over the next few months, but we do expect Vice President Kamala Harris to announce her support for elements of what President Biden has put forward. (Even so, it’s difficult to see any of them advancing in the current, highly partisan environment.)

Another item not on Zients’ list: President Biden and his White House team also will have to try to use what influence they have left to entice Democrats and Republicans to come together to avoid a government shutdown. The end of fiscal year 2024 is a little less than six weeks away and it’s not clear yet if the two parties have a plan for a continuing resolution to keep the federal government open just a month before Election Day.

According to The Associated Press, President Biden also will seek to “quickly fill’ dozens of vacancies within the federal court system and to make other federal agency appointments. Senate Republicans will try to stymie those efforts, of course, just as they did near the end of President Barack Obama’s second term with his nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.

A Short History Of Lame Duck Achievements

As The Associated Press noted in July, “Lame-duck presidents have used the waning days of their presidencies to take big shots at weighty policy.” For example, in 1908, President Theodore Roosevelt, who opted not to seek a third term even though that option was available to him at the time, signed into a law several initiatives to improve environmental conservation. President Roosevelt also launched the Great White Fleet which, according to Politico, led to “a new era of American naval dominance.”

Other accomplishments by lame duck presidents include:

• In the waning days of 1980, President Jimmy Carter, who lost that year’s presidential election to Ronald Reagan, negotiated the return of six American hostages from Iran. The hostages came home after Reagan was sworn in.
• Perhaps taking a page from Roosevelt, President Carter also signed into law the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, which protected more than 150 million acres of land.
• Additionally, nine days after losing to Reagan, Carter nominated Stephen Breyer to the U.S. First Circuit Court of Appeals. The nomination was successful and Breyer went on to become a Supreme Court justice.
• In late 1992, President George H.W. Bush, who had just lost the presidential election to Bill Clinton, intervened militarily in Somalia to open closed channels for humanitarian assistance.
• In the fall of 2008 and amidst the Great Recession, President George W. Bush, who was deeply unpopular with voters and was dealing with a divided Congress, signed into law a $700 billion bailout of the financial services industry. President Bush also approved more than $17 billion to keep the U.S. auto industry afloat.

President Bill Clinton also swung for the fences during the last months of his second term. In 2000, he initiated negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat at Camp David.

That effort was unsuccessful, however.

According to Foreign Policy, the waning months for other lame duck presidents have been downright “disastrous.” For example, in December 1860 and January 1861, President James Buchanan refused to act forcefully after six southern states seceded from the union. Buchanan handed off to his successor, President Abraham Lincoln, a nation at war with itself.

Additionally:

• In 1888, President Benjamin Harrison refused to take action as investors, fearing the policies espoused by incoming President Grover Cleveland, pulled their money out of the stock market. A financial crisis ensued.
• In 1932, after Franklin Delano Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover, Hoover refused to sign legislation that aimed to address the Great Depression. The depression would last for nearly a decade longer.
• In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson tried to end the war in Vietnam before he left office, but ultimately did not succeed.

When President Biden announced in July that he was ending his campaign, he said he was “determined to get as much done” as possible. Obviously, one of the biggest coups on his to-do list would be to ensure his party has another four years in the White House — a feat presidents like Johnson, Bush, and Obama did not achieve. Which is why, in addition to tackling global issues, judicial appointments, and consumer protection matters, President Biden will assume one other role: cheerleader for Kamala Harris.

During his Monday night remarks at the DNC, the president pledged to be the “best volunteer” the Harris campaign would have. While we do not expect the commander-in-chief to start knocking on doors or registering people to vote, we anticipate seeing President Biden out on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin over the next 11 weeks making the case for his VP.