The first session of the 119th Congress is nearly over. What are Republican leaders like Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-La.) and top Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wishing for as they celebrate the holiday season?
Substantive policy victories? Perhaps. But at the top of every party leader’s gift list is election wins in 2026, of course.
The U.S. midterm congressional elections are just 321 days away. Here’s the state of play as we head into the new year.
Americans Are Unsettled
Headlines over the last 24 hours are clear: Americans are pretty unhappy with the administration and congressional leadership. Her’s a sampling:
- CNN: “Who loves Trump? Apparently fewer people than ever”;
- Reuters: “Trump’s approval rating slips to 39%, economy weighs, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds”;
- PBS: “Americans are more dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy than ever, poll shows”; and
- NPR: “Trump’s economic approval hits a new low at 36%, poll finds.”
President Trump’s overall approval rating, according the RealClearPolitics average of polls, is 43.6 percent. That number is up slightly from last month, but is down slightly—by about a point — from when he took office in January for his second term.
History, of course, is not kind to presidents who go into midterm elections with approval ratings in the low-to-mid-40 ranges. For example:
- President Trump’s current average approval rating is lower than President Barack Obama’s rating in 2010 when Democrats lost 63 U.S. House seats and six U.S. Senate seats;
- It’s also lower than President Bill Clinton’s approval rating in 1994 when Democrats lost 52 House seats and eight Senate seats; and
- It’s about the same as it was in the 2018 midterm elections when Republicans lost 40 seats in the House, but picked up two Senate seats.
Polls shows the nation’s affordability crisis is at the center of these dismal ratings. A recent Harvard/Harris poll found 57 percent of Americans, including one-fifth of Republican voters, believe President Trump is losing the battle against inflation. As The Hill pointed out, inflation and affordability ranked as the top issue for voters, including 48 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans. That survey also showed that a majority of Americans think the president’s tariffs are harming the economy.
This discontent has already shown up in elections this year. Not only did Democrats sweep the two governors’ races held this year — they were in New Jersey and Virginia — in December:
- Democrat Eileen Higgins won Miami’s mayoral election. Higgins became the first Democrat elected to the mayorship in three decades. Miami narrowly went for former Vice President Kamala Harris last year, but Trump flipped Miami-Dade County, which includes the city.
- Democrats flipped a conservative-leaning statehouse seat in Georgia that President Trump won by 12 percentage points in 2024.
- While the GOP candidate won a special U.S. congressional race in Tennessee, the margin in that race was just nine points — a significant drop from the 22 points by which President Trump carried the district by last year.
President Trump will try to ease some of this discontent in remarks from the Oval Office tonight. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has told reporters the address will focus on the president’s “historic accomplishments,” including on immigration and inflation, and will outline “what’s to come.”
Will the speech work?
Maybe. And it comes as plenty of GOP lawmakers are worried, too.
Republicans Are Retiring En Masse (But Democrats Are Leaving Too)
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a once-Trump-fan-turned-critic, shocked Republicans this fall when she announced her retirement from Congress. (As she did, she offered sharp criticism for the commander-in-chief.)
But the congresswoman isn’t the only Republican departing Washington.
According to research from AXIOS, 44 U.S. House lawmakers, about than 1 in 10, have either left Congress or announced that they plan to do so. That quit rate is a record, but GOP retirements and resignations have outpaced Democrats by a nearly two-to-one ratio in the first 11 months of 2025. In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority. For example:
- In 2018, 34 House Republicans opted to retire compared to only 18 Democrats. The GOP lost control of the House.
- In 2022, 31 Democrats retired, versus 18 Republicans, ahead of a GOP House takeover.
In the Senate, the retirement numbers are split evenly. Eight incumbents — four Democrats and four Republicans — have announced that they will not seek reelection in 2026.
As Punchbowl observed last week, the GOP retirements also will wreak havoc on the Republican agenda — the party’s ability to “get things done” for the American people — in 2026.
“GOP lawmakers are beginning to think more about their own political survival rather than what party leaders are selling,” Punchbowl wrote. “There were a pair of episodes this week to demonstrate just how shaky the House GOP leadership’s control is. House Republicans struggled for more than an hour Wednesday to pass a rule to begin debate on the [National Defense Authorization Act], the typically bipartisan Pentagon policy bill. … Separately, GOP moderates wanted to hear from [Speaker] Johnson on whether he’d put a bill on the floor to extend enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies, a huge political and policy problem for Republicans.”
When Speaker Johnson did not agree to their plan, these Republicans went over his head to force a vote, effectively wrestling control of the House floor away from leadership.
Amid this upheaval, Republicans have hung their hopes on state plans to redraw congressional districts in their favor. Let’s turn now to the status of those efforts.
Will Redistricting Boost GOP Hopes?
Republican state lawmakers in Texas pushed through a redistricting plan earlier this year that supporters predicted would result in a five-seat gain for the GOP in the U.S. House.
Using results from elections held this year, CNN has concluded that outcome is now in doubt.
“President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions,” CNN said. “Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map — Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago — seems like it might be too small. Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five U.S. House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column.”
But Texas policymakers were not the only ones to act. Democrats have responded to the GOP redistricting strategy. In November in California, voters approved a plan put forward by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to redraw that state’s congressional districts. According to Cook Political Report, that move will help Democrats gain three to five U.S. House seats.
Three other states — North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah — also redrew their congressional lines. Collectively, Cook estimates these states could end up in a zero to three seat net gain for Republicans. But other states, including Democrat strongholds like Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Wisconsin, are considering redistricting legislation. Those actions obviously could alter the numbers further.
Additionally, Republicans have run into opposition from their own party. Last week, the GOP-led Indiana Senate defeated a redistricting plan on a 19-31 vote. “The federal government should not dictate by threat or other means what should happen in our states,” said Spencer Deery, one of the GOP senators who voted against the redistricting plan.
Indeed, the Hoosier vote was a major blow to Republican hopes to pick up seats through mid-decade redistricting. (Normally, districts are only redrawn after the U.S. Census, which happens every decade.) “At this point, Trump’s redistricting war is a wash at best,” Punchbowl wrote last week. “Right now, Republicans may net two or three seats, but even that outcome is uncertain.”
In politics, 321 days is an eternity. But, this holiday season, Democrats are feeling optimistic. One more piece of data in their favor: as Roll Call reported, last week analysts at Inside Elections changed the ratings in 16 U.S. House races toward Democrats. Roll Call concluded, “From historical midterm trends that favor the party out of power to President Donald Trump’s mediocre job-approval rating to consistent Democratic overperformances in this year’s special and regular general elections, the current national political environment favors Democrats.”