It is looking more and more like the U.S. government is heading toward a shutdown.
After agreeing to meet with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to discuss a plan to keep the federal government operating beyond Tuesday, Sept. 30 — the date when fiscal year (FY) 2025 spending runs out — President Donald Trump abruptly canceled the meeting yesterday. (Sen. Schumer and Rep. Jeffries had sent a letter to President Trump on Saturday requesting the meeting. In response to the letter, the president originally told the media he would meet with the two Democratic leaders, but did not think it would “have any impact.” Now we know it will not.)
The cancellation comes after the Senate’s failure last week to approve a short-term, House-passed continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open until Nov. 21.
With six days left before a government shutdown, what are the issues dividing Republicans and Democrats? What happens in the event of a shutdown, and how long have past stalemates lasted? Let’s take a look.
What’s Dividing Republicans And Democrats?
A CR is a short-term spending bill that provides funding for federal agencies at the previous fiscal year’s levels. Historically, CRs have been viewed as a noncontroversial vehicle to keep the federal government operating, as they simply extend existing funding levels, typically for a short period of time. To avert a government shutdown in the current context, GOP lawmakers want Congress to approve, and the president to sign, a “clean” CR — “clean” meaning the bill only extends current government funding levels and does not include any other policy riders.
But Democrats are insisting on a CR that addresses a few other priorities, including:
- A reversal of recent cuts to Medicaid and federal TV and radio broadcasting programs;
- An extension of Affordable Care Act healthcare premium tax credits that have helped more than 20 million Americans purchase health insurance; and
- Language that would prevent the Trump administration from making spending cuts without approval from Congress.
In the wake of the murder of political pundit Charlie Kirk, lawmakers from both parties have said they are also open to adding funding to enhance security protections for members of Congress, executive branch officials, and judges.
But, this being Washington, where you stand depends on where you sit. As Politico pointed out, the positions each party has taken in the current CR fight are at odds with their respective outlooks during recent government funding fights. Just last year, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) “vowed … to never pass another continuing resolution to fund the government,” but last Friday “he muscled through the second GOP-backed stopgap of 2025,” Politico explained. “One House Republican described a closed-door conference meeting last week like being in ‘The Twilight Zone,’ as several hard-liners who once opposed continuing resolutions as preludes to bloated, opaque omnibus spending bills voiced support for a short-term punt.”
Meanwhile, during the government shutdown fight of 2013 and in subsequent skirmishes, it was Democrats who “insisted that any funding bill stay free of policy provisions,” Politico wrote. In 2013, “then-Majority Leader Harry Reid … cast the choice for the GOP as ‘whether to pass the Senate’s clean CR or force a Republican government shutdown.’ They said much the same when they had majorities under President Joe Biden.”
Why were Democrats so worried about a government shutdown in 2013? Because they can have profound effects on the country.
What Happens in a Government Shutdown?
Earlier this month, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) published a report that provided an overview of what happens — and does not happen — during a federal government shutdown. Broadly, as the BPC said, “Shutdowns cause interruptions to government services, delayed payments to households and businesses, and can lead to furloughs and financial strain for federal workers. These effects create lasting economic damage for communities.” According to the BPC, “even a weeks-long shutdown can have permanent negative economic effects north of $1 billion.”
It’s important to remember, however, that shutdowns affect only the discretionary spending programs for which Congress must appropriate funds for each year. These line items include afterschool, national defense, and housing programs. Discretionary spending also includes funding for:
- Public health programs, including disease detection and prevention;
- Some veterans benefits;
- Farm loans through the U.S. Department of Agriculture;
- Transportation funding that is used to build and repair roads, highways, and bridges;
- Income support programs designed to help Americans in need, including low-income women and children; and
- The Small Business Administration (SBA), which provides billions of dollars of direct and guaranteed lending and other support to small businesses across the country.
As the BPC articulated, when there is a shutdown, for discretionary spending programs a federal department, agency, or program must:
- Stop all projects and activities, sometimes within three to four hours;
- Furlough employees whose work activities have not been exempted from the shutdown;
- Halt pay for all government employees and contractors, whether they are working (exempted) or not; and
- Sign no new contracts for goods and services.
“A lengthy shutdown could also delay the release of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, such as unemployment figures and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, at a precarious time for the U.S. economy,” the BPC advised. “Fiscal policymakers in Congress and monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve rely on this data to make evidence-based and data-driven decisions, while investors rely on the data to make smart investments. Significant delays in releasing this data could make it more difficult for policymakers and investors to steer the U.S. economy through a time of persistent inflation and uncertainty.”
What’s not affected by a government shutdown?
The federal government can continue to make interest payments on the debt. Mandatory spending programs like Social Security and Medicare also generally are able to function. Other essential services like air travel managed by the Federal Aviation Administration and airport security managed by the Transportation Security Administration “may continue to operate but at lower levels of service since only some employees are exempt from furlough and required to continue working,” the BPC advised.
Despite these significant consequences, federal lawmakers have, of course, shut down the government in the past.
How Long Have Past Government Shutdowns Lasted?
According to the BPC, since 1980, there have been 14 full or partial shutdowns. (A partial government shutdown occurs when the president has signed into law full-fiscal year funding bills for at least some federal agencies. As a reminder, even though Congress often folds all appropriations bills into one omnibus spending package, Congress actually is supposed to consider 12 separate spending bills each year.)
Between passage of the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act, which established the modern federal budget process, and 1980, Congress failed six times to approve the annual funding bills on time. These gaps, which ranged in length from 10 to 17 days, did not result in major government shutdowns, however, since policymakers generally agreed agencies could continue normal operations until funding was provided.
Interestingly, partisan bickering wasn’t the cause of these shutdowns. All six of these funding gaps occurred when Democrats held the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Agencies’ ability to continue to operate when spending lapsed changed in 1980. As U.S. House historians have explained, that’s when U.S. Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti wrote a series of legal opinions calling for a stricter interpretation of the Antideficiency Act, a longstanding law that was supposed to prohibit government agencies from authorizing expenditures in excess of the amount Congress provided them by law.
President Ronald Reagan agreed with Civiletti’s opinion. As a result, beginning with the appropriations process for FY 1982 that took place in the fall of 1981, funding gaps have resulted in a shutdown of affected agencies.
Indeed, there was a shutdown that year. It lasted two days.
The last full government shutdown was 12 years ago, in 2013. It lasted 21 days.
The last partial government shutdown started in late 2018. (It was partial because funding for the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, and Homeland Security already had been signed into law.) This shutdown, which stretched from December into January 2019, lasted 34 days, and was the longest ever.
The majority of the 14 government shutdowns, 12, occurred when there was mixed party rule in the nation’s capital. The 21-day government shutdown that occurred in November 1995, for example, came when Democratic President Bill Clinton was in the White House and Republicans controlled the U.S. House and Senate. The last two shutdowns, in January 2018 and December 2018, came when Republicans had full control of both the White House and Congress.
What will happen next in this current saga?
Congress is in recess this week, so not much will happen over the next few days.
On Monday, however, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) reportedly plans to try to force his chamber to cast another vote on the House-approved, clean CR. Sen. Thune will need 60 votes to break a filibuster — meaning he will have to convince seven Democrats to break ranks and vote with Republicans. That bar is high, if not impossible, to clear meaning, making a full government shutdown very likely barring a breakthrough in the next few days.