Yesterday was April Fools’ Day. It also was Election Day — at least in Florida and Wisconsin. For both Democrats and Republicans, the tea leaves that revealed themselves in Tuesday’s contests were no joking matter. In fact, they could serve as early indicators of electoral success (or defeat) in later campaigns, including the 2026 midterm congressional elections.
What happened in Florida and Wisconsin last night, and what do the results indicate about what’s on voters’ minds about the Trump administration, congressional Republicans, and their loyal opposition in the Democratic party?
Let’s take a look.
Wisconsin: Democrats Prevail In Expensive Supreme Court Race
State supreme court races rarely attract significant attention in the states where they are being held, much less nationally.
Not so for Tuesday’s contest in Wisconsin, which, according to Roll Call, finished as the most expensive state supreme court race in U.S. history. It is estimated that, together, the campaigns representing liberal Democrat, Susan Crawford, and conservative Republican, Brad Schmiel, spent $43 million on the race. Outside groups added to that already significant sum. Elon Musk was among the biggest donors during the campaign, spending $21 million supporting Schimel. President Trump also endorsed Schimel.
In the end, the Musk deluge did not work.
As The Associated Press noted, President Trump won Wisconsin in November 2024 by 0.8 percentage points. With 95 percent of the votes counted, the Democrat, Crawford, is winning by about 140,000 votes, or 10 percentage points. “Sauk County … is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes,” the AP explained. “Sauk shifted 14 points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford … Besides strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.” Crawford also won Kenosha and Racine counties, which both went for President Trump last November. As of this morning, Crawford was on pace to win by nine percentage points in those areas.
Opposition to Musk may have been a factor in Schmiel’s loss. “I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in,” Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old Milwaukee security guard, told the AP. “They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have.” (To be sure, Schmiel was not the only one who received outside help. George Soros supported Crawford.)
Political analysts generally agree Musk was a drag on the GOP candidate. “It’s clear now that while Republicans may crave his financial support, Musk is a severe liability for the party’s candidates,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin argued. “The margin in the Wisconsin court contest indicates that by inserting himself into the race so personally, Musk undermined the GOP-aligned candidate. Democrats’ internal polling had Crawford leading, but not by the 10-point margin she will win once all of Milwaukee has been counted.”
Musk was quite vocal about the importance of the race, even arguing it “might decide the future of America and Western civilization.”
While that statement may be a bit of hyperbole, there’s no doubt the outcome could help shift the balance of power toward Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Why? The Wisconsin Supreme Court has the power to approve or deny congressional redistricting maps. “Democrats have quietly argued for months that a Crawford victory would pave the way for a liberal-tilting Wisconsin Supreme Court to order new congressional maps, which could help Democrats defeat one or two of the state’s Republican Congress members,” explained The New York Times.
Will Democrats need that boost? Maybe not since yesterday’s special congressional elections may also portend trouble for Republicans.
Republicans Win Special Congressional Elections, But Margins Shrink
Florida held two special congressional elections yesterday. The Republican candidate prevailed in both, but the margins of victory certainly were not what the GOP had been hoping for. Additionally, it’s clear Democrats were motivated to give their hard-earned dollars to their party’s candidates in Florida’s special elections. In the 1st Congressional District, the GOP victor was outraised 3-1 while in the 6th Congressional District, the Republican candidate was outraised by nearly 10-1.
But what about the actual results?
Republican Randy Fine was victorious in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, where he was running to replace Mike Waltz, who stepped down in January to serve as President Trump’s national security adviser. The problem? Fine defeated his Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, by only 19 percentage points. Waltz won the district by a whopping 33 points just five months ago.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, took on Democrat Gay Valimont in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. (This seat was vacated by Republican Matt Gaetz almost immediately after he won reelection last November.) As of this morning, Patronis led by 14.5 points. Former Rep. Gaetz won that seat last November by 32 points — even though he was facing a congressional ethics inquiry. Additionally, Valimont made significant headway in areas President Trump easily carried in 2024. “[I]n Escambia, Valimont leads Patronis by 3 points, with more than 95 percent of votes counted,” Newsweek reported. “At the 2024 presidential election, Trump won Escambia by 19 points on a higher voter turnout.”
If shifts like the ones in Florida and Wisconsin hold in November 2026 – and, granted, that’s a long, long way away – Republicans would face disaster. In fact, according to AXIOS, “Extrapolate those House results across competitive 2026 races — and you’re likely to get a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), and lots of close races on [what should be] a very favorable GOP Senate map.”
Politico’s Martin noted the results in Florida last night are similar to special election outcomes in 2017 when President Trump was in his first term in office. “We’ve seen this movie before,” said Martin. “Suddenly revived Democrats and angry independents who are most closely following a new Trump presidency show up in otherwise red districts while the president’s less-engaged supporters stay at home. The only question now is if this Trump White House can find a way in 2026 to do what their predecessors in 2018 couldn’t: drive out marginal MAGA types and save their House majority.”
In 2019, scholar Joshua Spivak analyzed 861 recall efforts in 30 states that happened from 2011 to 2018 to see if the special election outcomes provided a good indication of the mood of the country and portended what would happen in future national elections. “While a string of special election defeats can be seen as simply one-off losses that have little to do with the overall tenor of the electorate, recalls provide evidence that special elections can be a real warning of impending trouble beyond just a small subset of motivated voters,” he concluded. “A failure to reverse the trend of setbacks in special elections — no matter when they’re held —may be a real sign of things to come in the next general election.”
Is Tuesday A Bellwether?
According to an Associated Press newsletter sent this morning, “Tuesday’s election results provide early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump.” The New York Times agreed, noting last night’s results “come on the heels of Democratic triumphs in special elections for state legislative seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania and the defeat of four Republican-backed state referendums in Louisiana.” (In late March in the Keystone State, a Democrat won a surprise victory for a vacant state senate seat, prevailing in a district President Trump won by 15 points last fall. In January in Iowa, a Democrat flipped a state senate seat where the Republican candidate held by a 22-point margin just three years earlier.)
That may be true, but there also are still 19 long months between now and November 2026. There also are seven months before voters go to the polls in New Jersey and Virginia to elect their next governors and to fill some legislative seats. And there are five months between now and a special election in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, where Democrats will defend the seat held by the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D), who died on March 13, 2025.
In other words, Republicans still have a lot of time to reassess and change course. But there is little doubt: according to voters in the key battleground states of Florida and Wisconsin who went to the polls yesterday, the GOP may want to rethink its current policy strategy.
Or, perhaps, at least rethink Elon Musk.