Election Day is just 13 days away.
You read that correctly: voters will go to the polls in less than two weeks. In some states, at least.
While the 2026 midterm congressional elections are still more than a year away, major races or ballot initiatives are happening early next month in California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia — and the outcomes of these campaigns will act as a barometer for Republicans and Democrats going into next year. “[The 2025 off-year elections] will serve as a pulse check for Democrats, who are desperate to show their supporters some momentum,” New York Times reporter Jess Bidgood wrote this week. “Republicans will pore over the returns for signs of whether the 2024 gains they made with young and nonwhite voters stuck around.”
The results will also tell policymakers how happy voters are with the state of the country and the economy. Or whether they are satisfied with incumbents, or prefer a new type of leadership.
With those questions in mind: who, and what, is on the ballot this year?
From Sea to Shining Sea: Major 2025 Campaigns
For 2025 election watchers, it will be a long day. Polls open in New Jersey and Virginia at 6 a.m. ET (they open in Pennsylvania an hour later) and, in California, they close at 8 p.m. PT. During those 18 hours, two governorships are up for grabs, as are dozens of state legislative seats, and, quite possibly, control of U.S. Congress — even though not one member of the U.S. House of Representatives is on the ballot.
The balance of power in Congress could be affected by the 2025 election because California voters get to determine whether or not to, as The New York Times’ Bigood put it, “gerrymander the state’s congressional districts to help Democrats flip as many as five seats next year.”
Readers may recall that other states, including Republican-held Texas, have approved redistricting measures that could add seats for the GOP next year.
In New Jersey, meanwhile, voters will decide who will be their next governor. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, and Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican a former state representative, are on the ballot. Voters also will decide who will be their representatives in the State Assembly, the lower chamber of the state legislature.
Voters in Virginia also will have the opportunity to choose a new governor. Facing off in that race are former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican. As in New Jersey, voters also will decide who will represent them in the lower chamber of the state legislature, the House of Delegates. Virginia voters also will choose a new attorney general.
In Pennsylvania, voters will determine whether or not to retain three Supreme Court justices, all of whom were originally elected as Democrats. While The New York Times’ Bigood acknowledged these races are “quirky and under the radar,” she also astutely pointed out that “the outcome will determine the tilt of the seven-member Pennsylvania State Supreme Court through the next presidential election. What’s at stake is nothing less than control of the highest court in the most important swing state in the country.”
Analysts also are keeping a close eye on the New York City mayoral contest. Three individuals are facing off: former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who lost the Democratic primary and is running as an Independent; State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America; and Republican Curtis Sliwa, who is under pressure to bow out since he is expected to split votes with Cuomo, an outcome that would result in the election of Mamdani. (Democrats are worried that having an actual member of the Democratic Socialists of America running the country’s largest city could harm their ability to reach out to moderate, swing voters.) Indeed, Mamdani has enjoyed wide polling leads since at least early September.
What Do the Polls Say?
Democrats are not just nervous about the New York City mayoral election. They also are feeling anxiety in New Jersey, another traditionally “blue” — or strong Democratic — state. According to a poll released by KAConsulting this week, the Democratic candidate Sherill has just a three-point advantage over her GOP opponent Ciattarelli. A poll released last week by Fairleigh Dickinson had Sherrill up seven points.
One reason that Ciattarelli may be polling well? As the New Jersey Monitor reported back in August, “Over Democrat Phil Murphy’s two terms as governor, New Jersey Republicans saw significant growth in voter registration compared to Democrats.” Specifically, from August 2017 to August 2025, “The number of registered Republicans increased by nearly 433,000 voters in that time period, a 35 percent rise. Democratic registration increased by roughly 427,000 voters, or 20 percent.” (These numbers mirror nationwide trends. A 2024 New York Times analysis of voter registration data in 30 states found Democrats lost 2.1 million registered voters between 2020 and 2024, while the GOP gained 2.4 million.)
Still, Democrats enjoy an 860,000 voter registration advantage in the state. If Republicans can pull off a win in sapphire blue New Jersey, it would be a warning sign for Democrats ahead of 2026.
Democrats are feeling more secure in Virginia, where a Republican, Glenn Youngkin, currently holds the governorship. Eleven polls have been released so far in the month of October, and Democrat Spanberger has been ahead in all of them. Her lead over Earle-Sears ranged from three points to 12 points in those surveys.
Polling in Virginia’s attorney general’s race is more mixed. Republican Jason Miyares was ahead in the last six polls, but Democrat Jay Jones consistently led up to that point. This race may have nothing to do with the national climate, however. Jones’s lead shriveled after private texts leaked showing him calling graphically for political violence against a senior GOP lawmaker.
On the West Coast, Democrats are feeling cautiously optimistic about the redistricting ballot initiative they have put forth in California. Two weeks ago, Punchbowl reported a survey that found a majority of state voters, 54 percent, said they support the initiative. Only 36 percent said they opposed the measure.
And in Pennsylvania? According to the latest poll there, more than half of voters still do not know whether they will vote to retain the justices on the ballot. If the justices are not retained, it could cause “disarray” in the court system Vice Chair of the Supreme Court Commission on Judicial Independent Chip Becker told WESA, Pittsburgh’s National Public Radio affiliate.
“Pennsylvania’s constitution lays out a clear procedure for filling a Supreme Court vacancy,” WESA explained. “If the justices close out their term at the end of the year, the governor can nominate an interim replacement until the next municipal election, which would be in 2027. But the Senate must confirm that nomination by a two-thirds majority. And while the process is straightforward, the politics are not. The current governor, Josh Shapiro, is a Democrat, while the Senate is held by Republicans. Shapiro and the Senate did not name a replacement for the late Justice Max Baer after his death in 2022.”
In other words, Pennsylvania’s highest court could be operating at less than capacity going into a critical midterm election year. This fact is important because state supreme courts have the authority to rule on election challenges. In 2024, for example, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all county election officials not to count mail-in ballots that arrived on time, but in envelopes without the correct dates handwritten by voters.
Do Off-Year Elections Mean Anything?
Earlier this month, Brookings Institution scholars E.J. Dionne, Jr. and Max Keeney examined what off-year elections like the one that will happen this Nov. 4 tell us about the midterm congressional elections next year.
Their answer? “Occasionally, they are prophetic; often, not so much.”
Take 2017, for example. President Donald Trump won his first presidential election the year before, but Democrats had a blockbuster off-year election in 2018, taking the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral campaign. The following midterm election year, however, the outcome was mixed. Democrats did pick up the U.S. House, adding 41 seats to their roster, but Republicans padded their majority in the U.S. Senate.
A couple of decades earlier, after President George W. Bush was elected to the White House in 2000, Democrats were victorious in the 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, but lost the New York City mayoral election. In the 2002 midterms, Republicans not only held both the House and Senate, they picked up seats while doing so.
There have been years when off-year elections were more predictive. In both 1993 and 1997, Republicans swept the New Jersey, New York, and Virginia races and in the next year’s midterm congressional elections, the party picked up seats. The same happened, but for Democrats, in the 1989 off-year and 1990 midterm elections.
And in the most recent election cycle?
After President Joe Biden was elected in 2020, Democrats won in New Jersey and New York, but Republicans won in Virginia. The outcome in the 2022 midterm elections was similarly mixed: Republicans flipped the House, picking up nine seats, and Democrats held the Senate, adding one lawmaker to their caucus.
Watch what happens on Nov. 4, but keep in mind the crystal ball may not be all that reliable.