The 2024 elections are less than a month away. What does the polling tell us might happen on Election Day?
In less than one month — 27 days to be exact — Americans who have not already voted by absentee or early ballot will go to the polls to cast their votes for which party will control the White House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House of Representatives.
Election Day is almost here.
Some voters will also be asked who they prefer for governor, as their representative in their state legislature or school board district, and how they want to handle certain policies like marijuana legalization or women’s reproductive health in their state, but in today’s post we will provide an update on federal races.
With less than four weeks to go, which party is really in the lead?
The Race For The White House: Too Close To Call
According to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in national polling in the presidential race by a whopping two points. That number is well within the margin of error, meaning the popular vote race is still too close to call.
That number is also smaller than the margin Democrats enjoyed at this point in the race during both the 2016 and 2020 elections in the RealClearPolitics average. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5 points 27 days before that year’s contest. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by just 2.1 percentage points that year, but lost the Electoral College count. Leaving aside the debate about whether the popular vote should be the deciding factor in the White House race, a 3.4-point swing in the last four weeks of the election is significant. Clearly, Vice President Harris cannot rest on her current two-point advantage. (That said, the RealClear average is not the only average out there. Morning Consult now has a daily tracking average. As of yesterday, Vice President Harris was up by six points.)
In 2020, current President Joe Biden led Trump, the incumbent president in that race, by 9.7 percent in RealClearPolitics’ national average. Biden ended up winning the popular vote by just 4.4 percentage points.
In other words: if very recent history is any guide, do not put much stock in national polls quite yet. Vice President Harris is also reportedly struggling with some traditionally Democratic constituencies, including Arab Americans, members of labor unions, and Black voters.
Still, Democrats inside the Beltway are optimistic about their potential for keeping the White House.
Punchbowl News surveyed senior Republican and Democratic staffers on Capitol Hill last week. Nearly three-quarters, 72 percent, predicted Vice President Harris will win the presidential election. That number included almost half of all GOP respondents. In fact, the consensus among Hill staff is that Vice President Harris will lose only one swing state: Georgia.
Are those Electoral College predictions in line with state polls? Not quite. According to RealClearPolitics, former President Trump is ahead in Arizona and North Carolina, the race is tied in Pennsylvania, and Vice President Harris is barely ahead in Wisconsin and Nevada. The New York Times has a slightly better picture for Vice President Harris when it comes to swing state polls, but most surveys are still within the margin of error.
Add to that fact this analysis from The New York Times: “In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Mr. Trump just about everywhere. If it happened again this cycle, he would claim an easy victory. On the other hand, the 2022 polls underestimated Democrats in most key states. If it happened again, it would be Ms. Harris who claimed a victory.”
The race for the White House? It’s still way too close to call.
The Race For The Senate: Advantage Republicans
As we have written in the past, Senate Democrats entered 2024 at a disadvantage. The party is defending 23 seats to Republicans’ 11. And for months it has been assumed that the GOP will pick up an open Senate seat in West Virginia that is currently occupied by Independent-who-caucuses-with-Democrats Sen. Joe Manchin, who is retiring. Indeed, at this point, Democrats have all but conceded that race.
Democrats also are increasingly on the defensive in Montana where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) is in a tough race. In a poll released on October 1, Sen. Tester was down by a significant margin, eight points. Cook Political Report has moved this race from a toss-up to lean Republican. That news comes even though Sen. Tester has raised nearly twice as much money as his opponent, Tim Sheehy.
If Republicans take these two seats, they will control the upper chamber of Congress next year.
Are there any seats Democrats could take back from the GOP? Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won reelection by only three points six years ago and, according to Cook Political Report, he is the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election in November. Sen. Cruz was up by four points in the latest RealClearPolitics average over popular Democratic U.S. Rep. Collin Allred. With 27 days to go in 2018, Sen. Cruz was up by 6.5 percentage points against his 2018 challenger, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
Democrats also are hoping they might be competitive in the Nebraska and Florida Senate races, but Cook Political Report still thinks those seats are pretty firmly in the Republican column. Meanwhile, Democrats are also forging hard-fought races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where they currently hold seats.
According to Politico, Democrats have a money advantage in nearly all of these states except Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Republicans have spent more to date. Democratic fundraising also is looking strong in Texas. Yesterday, The Texas Tribune reported Rep. Allred raised $30.3 million in the third quarter of this year. Sen. Cruz raised just $21 million across his three fundraising accounts.
If Democrats lose Montana and West Virginia, keep the rest of their currently held states, and manage to wrest Texas away from Sen. Cruz, the margin in the Senate will be 50-50. In that scenario, whichever party wins the White House controls the Senate since Senate ties are broken by the sitting vice president. As of noon on January 20, 2025, that will either be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) or Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.).
The Race For The House: Advantage Democrats … Maybe?
Democrats believe what is happening at the top of their ticket will lift them in the House. In the previously mentioned Punchbowl survey of congressional staffers, 96 percent of Democratic respondents indicated they believe the Harris-Walz ticket will help Democrats in down-ballot races, including for the Senate and House. Only 46 percent of Republican senior staffers said the same thing about the Trump-Vance ticket.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) seems to agree with the GOP skeptics. In an interview with CNBC, he said that while he does not think Republicans will lose the House in November, he believes the GOP is “playing defense” against what he views as a Democratic money advantage this election cycle. “The problem being there, with the asterisk there, it’s easier to win seats in this cycle than last cycle, Democrats have more money,” said Rep. McCarthy, who was booted from the speakership by members of the House Freedom Caucus last year and ultimately left Congress mid-term.
Democrats need to convert just four currently-held GOP House seats to their column in order to take back the lower chamber of Congress. It appears they are already halfway there. The party is likely to pick up a brand new congressional seat in Alabama and seems poised to take control of New York’s 22nd Congressional District. Another 20 seats currently controlled by Republicans also are in play, according to Cook Political Report.
Of course, Democrats also are defending 21 vulnerable seats.
One potential data point that may give Democrats some pause: their advantage in generic ballot polling. This question asks, in general, which party a voter would prefer to support when it comes to voting for their member of the U.S. House of Representatives. As of yesterday, Democrats were up by just 1.9 percentage points. In 2020, they led by 6.6 percentage points on this question 27 days out from the election. Democrats picked up 13 House seats that year. It would seem the party would need a wider margin on the generic ballot question going into the election to win the majority by more than a few seats this November.
Last week, we discussed October surprises. With another hurricane bearing down on the Gulf Coast, news breaking that former President Trump has held several calls with Vladimir Putin after he left the White House (and while the United States was helping Ukraine in a war against Russia), and a new Melania Trump memoir hitting bookshelves, there is still plenty of opportunity for news to erupt that could cause a momentum – and polling – shift.