September and chillier weather have hit the nation’s capital, but members of Congress still are not yet back in Washington, D.C. They return Monday, September 9, at which point they will begin their sprint to the finish of the 118th Congress.
According to Roll Call, there are only 39 legislative days left on the Senate’s calendar for the rest of 2024. The House has even fewer. Its leaders have planned for the lower chamber of Congress to be in session for just 33 days between now and December 31.
If you have been watching the fiscal year (FY) 2025 funding debate at all, you know there is a lot to accomplish between now and then. Indeed, the U.S. Senate has not approved a single standalone spending bill, which means, once again, Congress will take the federal government to the brink of a shutdown.
How is FY 2025 spending season likely to end, and what other legislation do lawmakers have on their plates between now and the new year, and the new Congress? We will take a look at that list this week, along with regulatory agencies’ remaining tasks.
The Likelihood Of A Government Shutdown
While lawmakers have been out of the office for several weeks, House and Senate leaders have been working to set the broad parameters for a continuing resolution (CR), a short-term stopgap measure that would keep federal government agencies functioning for a certain period of time.
This morning, Roll Call reported House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is prepping legislation that would combine a six-month CR with House-passed legislation, the SAVE Act, that would require voters to show identification when casting ballots in federal elections. Speaker Johnson would fund federal agencies at current levels. His bill also is expected to include:
- A one-year extension of farm bill programs, which would otherwise expire Sept. 30;
- Billions in new funding to address shortfalls in Department of Veterans Affairs programs; and
- Additional funding for Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster relief.
Over the weekend, Speaker Johnson also said he would not abide by an agreement reached months ago between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and President Joe Biden to include so-called “side deals” in the overall calculation for a CR. That agreement, if adhered to, obviously would allow for higher spending.
The omission of side deals, combined with the inclusion of the SAVE Act, means Speaker Johnson’s CR will be dead on arrival in the Democratic Senate. The White House also wants more than Speaker Johnson seems to be willing to give. Last Thursday, the president sent Congress a wish list of spending items and add-ons he wants attached to the CR.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Speaker Johnson will have enough GOP support for his CR, either. While many House Republicans support the SAVE Act, the proposed spending levels will almost certainly upset conservative House Freedom Caucus members, many of whom object in principle to the use of a CR to fund the government.
Because neither party is itching for a government shutdown before voters cast their ballots, the likely endgame is that this spending fight will end like the last several: with passage of a clean CR with no policy riders, that funds the government at current levels through the election or into early next year While this outcome will rankle conservative Republicans, and again raise the specter of a motion to remove the speaker, it is the only politically viable path to avoid a shutdown before Election Day.
Congress’s Voluminous To-Do List
Members of Congress have plenty of other legislative priorities to tackle by December as well, but before diving into those priorities, let’s look at another important piece of business: executive branch and judicial nominations.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, had pledged to hold a committee vote on Christy Goldsmith Romero, whom President Joe Biden nominated earlier this year to be chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Chair Brown had hoped to hold a committee vote in July, but that did not happen. Goldsmith Romero’s nomination also suffered a recent setback when moderate Republican Sen. Mike Round (S. Dakota) said he would not support her nomination. Sen. Rounds told Politico he was not “happy” with the written responses Goldsmith Romero provided to committee members. “I wanted some straight answers, and I got gobbledygook back,” he said.
Still, it is possible for Goldsmith Romero to earn some GOP support. Specifically, other GOP senators and the Democrats on the panel could approve the nomination if Romero pledges to reconsider the FDIC’s recently proposed brokered deposits rule. Republicans and the banking and fintech communities have strongly criticized the proposed rule, which would generally reclassify any deposits received by a bank via a third-party relationship as brokered deposits.
While Chair Brown works to fill this important spot before the election, Senate Democrats also have made it clear they want to shepherd through more judicial nominees, adding to the 205 the Senate already has confirmed during the Biden administration. (AXIOS noted that, during the Trump administration, the Senate GOP confirmed 234 federal judges, “a number Democrats have made a priority to eclipse.”)
According to the American Constitution Society, there currently are 70 judicial vacancies, and 33 of these have nominees pending. Specifically, 21 are waiting for floor votes, six are waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and six waiting for hearings before that panel.
In related news, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he wants to try to advance President Biden’s plan to reform the U.S. judicial system. President Biden has:
- Proposed to set a code of conduct that would require Supreme Court justices to disclose gifts, refrain from public political activity, and recuse themselves from cases where they or their spouse has a conflict;
- Called for a constitutional amendment to overturn the Supreme Court’s decision to grant presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for “official acts’; and
- Proposed 18-year term limits for Supreme Court justices.
In addition to nominations and the expiring Farm Bill noted above, lawmakers also will have to decide whether to renew the federal government’s Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems authority, which also expires at the end of September. Congress also must renew Medicaid and health care provisions by September 30, and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) has made it clear he wants Congress to approve additional aid for the state to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which collapsed in early 2024 and provides a key gateway for goods coming into the United States.
China also will be on lawmakers’ minds when they return. Specifically, House Republicans could bring up a number of bills they believe would curb what they view as threats posed by China. Nearly two dozen items relating to China, touching on regulations and economic policy, are listed on the House floor schedule as potential items for consideration the week of Sept. 9.
On the Senate side this month, there is a chance the chamber will consider its version of the FY 2025 National Defense Authorization Agreement (NDAA). Given time constraints with the CR, however, the more likely scenario is that the Senate will consider the NDAA during the lame-duck session after the November elections or that an informal House-Senate conference will compose a final version without a Senate floor debate and then put that product before each chamber for a final vote.
A Busy Fall And Winter For Regulatory Agencies
Members of Congress will not be alone in struggling to complete their work before the deadline. Because the regulatory world would turn next year if Donald Trump and J.D. Vance take over the White House, executive branch agencies are under the gun, too.
For example:
- The U.S. Department of Education (DoEd) is working to finalize administrative actions that would provide more than 30 million student loan borrowers with significant debt relief. Even if the DoEd makes it to the finish line, it is highly likely, however, the Biden administration will face litigation challenging the administration’s legal authority to take these steps absent additional statutory authorization from Congress.
- The FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) have proposed a draft to regulate incentive-based compensation arrangements. This rule is necessary under the Dodd-Frank Act, but likely would be set aside by a second Trump administration.
- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) are working on a rule that, if finalized, would require SEC-registered investment advisers and exempt reporting advisers to establish, document, and maintain written customer identification programs.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will be particularly busy over the next several weeks. To start, in August Director Rohit Chopra reiterated the CFPB’s commitment to finalize its open banking rule in October. When implemented, this regulation would give consumers more control over their one financial data, allowing them to quickly and seamlessly share it with third parties like fintech firms.
For some time, the CFPB has been teasing its plans to propose a so-called “data brokers” rule under the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). The proposed regulation is likely to require any entity that accesses a consumer’s data for certain purposes to assert itself as a credit reporting agency and comport with all of the associated requirements under FCRA.
The CFPB is also expected to continue its recent run of interpretive rules classifying financial products as credit cards under Regulation Z, and to continue working on its rule that would bar medical debt from being stated on consumers’ credit reports.
The Biden administration also will have to determine how to handle several recent court decisions that have kept some of its premier regulatory measures from taking effect. This list includes the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on noncompete agreements, the U.S. Department of Labor’s regulation to enhance investment advice standards for retirement accounts while legal challenges to it are heard, and the U.S. Transportation Department’s new rule on upfront disclosure of airline fees.
With all of that activity and more, it is best not to blink between now and the end of the year.