As policymakers in Washington wound down their legislative work last week and prepared for Thanksgiving celebrations back in their home states and districts, breaking news rattled the nation’s capital: U.S. Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) announced suddenly that she was resigning from Congress.
The retirement will be effective Jan. 5, 2026 — just days after Rep. Greene becomes eligible for federal retirement benefits.
The congresswoman’s once-warm relationship with President Donald Trump had soured over recent months, so much so that the commander-in-chief announced he would not support her bid for reelection. The news put House Republicans in a precarious position. Depending on the results of upcoming special elections, the GOP advantage in the lower chamber of Congress – already historically small – could dwindle even further, if not evaporate entirely.
Let’s take a look at where things stand.
Where Does The Current Republican Majority Stand?
Including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, there are currently 432 individuals serving in the U.S. House of Representatives. Before Rep. Greene’s bombshell, there already were three vacancies for the seats of:
- Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who died in March;
- Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), who resigned in July to pursue an opportunity in the private sector; and
- Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), who announced her immediate resignation from Congress last week after winning the New Jersey governor’s race earlier this month.
In terms of party breakdown, Republicans currently enjoy a 219-213 advantage. That means House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and GOP leaders can lose no more than two votes when they bring GOP-backed legislation to the floor. (A loss of three votes would equate to a 216-216 outcome. Unlike the U.S. Senate, there is no mechanism to break ties in the lower chamber of Congress. A tie is a losing vote.)
That margin for error would, of course, narrow to 218-213 when Rep. Greene retires in early January — still leaving Republicans with a two-vote cushion — but there’s a potential problem: Republicans must win an increasingly contentious special election in Tennessee next week to fill Rep. Mark Green’s seat. If Republicans lose that contest, when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves Congress in January, the margin for the party would be 218-214 and they could lose no more than one vote on any matter on the House floor. (A two vote loss would result in a 216-216 tie.) If Republicans win in Tennessee, the margin would be 219-213, allowing the party its current two-vote cushion.
But even if the party wins in the Volunteer State in December, their narrow majority gets vulnerable again in late winter.
The runoff in the special election to fill the late Rep. Turner’s seat in Texas is set for Jan. 31, 2026. The two candidates who advanced to that race are both Democrats. If the December Tennessee race is won by the Democrat on the ballot, as noted above, the margin in the U.S. House would be 218-214. With the addition of the Democrat who will fill Rep. Turner’s seat, the margin would go to 218-215. The GOP could lose only one vote on any legislation. Under this scenario, a sick House Republican, a House Republican with a family emergency, or the resignation of another member of the House Republican Conference would effectively eliminate the GOP’s House majority.
Could spring bring relief?
Unlikely. Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.) already has announced the special election schedule to fill Governor-elect Sherrill’s seat: each party will hold a primary on Feb. 5. The general election will be held April 16. In 2024, Rep. Sherrill’s reelection win was extremely lopsided. She took more than 93 percent of the vote — meaning it is extraordinarily unlikely that Republicans will pick up this seat in the April special election. If Democrats prevail in New Jersey and in Tennessee in December, the margin in the U.S. House would be 218-216, meaning the GOP would not be able to afford any defections on votes on the House floor.
The date for the special election to fill Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene’s seat has not been set. She won her 2024 reelection race in 2024 by more than 30 points, but Democrats are sure to mount a substantial challenge in a state that has been more hospitable to their party in recent elections.
So, with the safety of the GOP majority riding on Tennessee, where does that race stand?
Could Democrats With Tennessee’s Special Election?
Rep. Mark Green won his 2024 election by a 21-point margin. That same year, President Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District by 22 points. Republicans should feel relatively optimistic about their chances of holding the seat on December 2 — but that has not stopped Democrats from trying to upend their good hopes.
“Democrats are going all in on a Tennessee special election next month, teeing up one last test of their electoral strength ahead of 2026 after enjoying a string of victories in November,” The Hill newspaper reported yesterday. “Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin in recent weeks have campaigned for Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative running against Republican Matt Van Epps for former Rep. Mark Green’s (R) seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Several outside Democratic groups have poured money into the race, too.”
Members of the party told The Hill they are optimistic in part because the current district lines include parts of Nashville, which tends to support Democrats by wider margins, and the last time there was an open race for the seat (2018), the 7th Congressional District did not include the city at all.
Initially, the Cook Political Report listed the special election contest as “solidly Republican,” but it has now shifted that rating to “likely Republican.”
On Monday, Nashville Scene reported Democrat Behn had “outraised her Republican foe Matt Van Epps almost two to one in recent weeks.”
Polling in the race is difficult to come by, but Nashville Scene also noted a recent poll from Impact Research, a firm aligned with Democrats, determined that Behn was down only eight percentage points. The election also comes as President Trump’s popularity is dwindling even further. On Monday, The Hill reported the president’s approval rating had reached a new low for his second term in the Decision Desk HQ polling average, falling to 41.5 percent on Friday. His disapproval simultaneously reached a new high of 56.6 percent.
Even some Republicans are worried. Yesterday, Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) told Punchbowl, “I think there is a chance that if Republicans stay home, and Democrats come out in strong numbers, maybe they could get really lucky.”
Early voting already has begun in the 7th Congressional District. As noted above, voters will go to the polls on December 2.
Republicans are biting their nails — for other reasons as well.
Other Republicans Thinking About Leaving Congress Soon?
Her retirement was not the only bombshell Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene dropped in recent days. As Newsweek reported on social media, Rep. Greene “indicated that she might not be the only GOP figure who might resign during this congressional term.” Indeed, “Writing on X on Monday, the Georgia Republican responded to a report from Punchbowl News stating that ‘a few other GOP members’ are ‘considering retiring in the middle of the term.’”
The congresswoman did not name names, but she was candid about why she believed other GOP lawmakers may follow her lead.
“My colleagues constantly trying to pass loyalty tests instead of demanding what is right won’t help Americans pay their rent or stop corporations from buying up homes, buy their groceries, provide good paying jobs and stop foreigners with visas from stealing their jobs, stop American tax dollars from funding foreign wars and causes, or rebuild the value of the dollar,” she said.
“Serious changes are needed and words are unconvincing,” she concluded.
Rep. Greene’s assertions have been validated by other GOP member of Congress. Another House Republican told Punchbowl News White House officials have treated Republican members “like garbage.” The unnamed source added that “more explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower.”
Of course, other departures could be disastrous for Republicans.
The departures of Green/Greene — Mark and Marjorie Taylor — have resulted in a razor-thin margin that has left House Republican leadership with zero room for error on floor votes, granting outsized leverage to individual members of the House Freedom Caucus to demand concessions on virtually any and every measure that leadership seeks to bring to the House floor. Conversely, this scenario also could force Speaker Johnson to rely more heavily on Democratic votes to enact “must-pass” legislation, including the government funding bill that will be required to keep most of the government open after January 30.
This strategy is Catch-22: it’s a necessary measure to keep the wheels of government spinning, but one that historically imperils speakerships. (Just ask former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.)
All to say: a lot is riding on next week’s special election in Tennessee.