The Republican National Convention starts in a little over a month, which means speculation about who Donald Trump will choose as his running mate has reached a fever pitch.
What we know at this point is that the former president is unlikely to select his first veep, Mike Pence, who ran on the Republican ticket with him in 2016 and 2020. (In case you missed it: in January, the former vice president released a highly critical memoir of Trump.)
Who is on the shortlist to be the GOP vice presidential nominee and when is Trump likely to select his running mate? We answer those questions this week, but, first, a reminder that the current method for deciding the country’s vice president is not what the founders intended.
The 12th Amendment To The U.S. Constitution
John Adams, the first vice president of the United States – and its second president – did not come by that position because he was George Washington’s preferred pick. Indeed, as historians at Mount Vernon, Washington’s estate that is now a historical site and museum, have explained, even though the two were from the same party, they were not close. In fact, “Washington relied on his cabinet instead of his vice president, even excluding Adams from cabinet meetings.”
As the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library explains, as originally written, the U.S. Constitution required members of the Electoral College to select two candidates for the two offices with “no differentiation between the candidate who would become president” and the one who would be the veep. The person with the majority of the Electoral College votes would be president. The other candidate would become VP since, having been selected by electors to run in the first place, that person was “considered the second-most qualified candidate.”
The Electoral College’s vote in 1788 was unanimous. The electors thought Washington was the best person for the job. Adams, even though he did not receive a single vote, became the vice president since he was the only other person on the ballot. (Perhaps this outcome was one reason Adams would go on to call the vice presidency “the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.”)
Washington served for two terms (he was unanimously reelected in 1792) and, in 1796, Adams decided to run for president — with Thomas Pickney, another Federalist, as his informal running mate. Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr ran together informally as part of the Democratic-Republican ticket.
The U.S. Constitution had not changed, however, and Adams received the most votes with Jefferson coming in second. The 1796 election was, therefore, as the campaign website 270ToWin noted, “the first contested American presidential election and the only one to elect a president and vice president from opposing tickets.”
Four years later, this system really went off the rails. In order to ensure the country would not end up with a president and a vice president from opposing parties, the Federalists and the Democratic-Republicans tried to get a bit more organized. Their two picks would run as a unified ticket. It was Adams and Charles Cotesworth Pinckney for the Federalists and Jefferson and Burr, again, for the Democratic-Republicans.
Jefferson and Burr defeated the Adams-led ticket this time, 73 to 65, but because the two ran on a single ticket “electors could not distinguish between president and vice president when voting.” Jefferson and Burr received the same number of votes in the Electoral College. Under the U.S. Constitution, a tie would be decided by the U.S. House of Representatives. Burr and Jefferson turned on one another quickly, launching heated campaigns to win the White House. It took 36 ballots for the House to finally elect Jefferson.
Political leaders were, at that point, fed up with the drama. To ensure smoother sailing in the future, the states ratified the 12th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which requires separate electoral votes for the president and vice president.
In other words, today it is impossible for Trump to win the presidency and Kamala Harris to stay on as vice president. (Though that’s a fun scenario to imagine.)
Who Will Donald Trump Choose As His Running Mate?
Speaking of Kamala Harris, even though Donald Trump has not yet selected a running mate, the current veep has her talking points ready for when he does.
As Politico recently reported, Vice President Harris reached out to the journalists who write the news outlet’s daily newsletter, “The Playbook,” to discuss Trump’s VP options. She did not go into detail analyzing any single candidate, opting instead to say, “What we know is that Donald Trump wants an enabler. He doesn’t want a governing partner. … The litmus test is, are they going to be absolutely loyal to Trump over country or their oath of office, or, frankly, the American people?”
Politico noted Vice President Harris’ direct engagement with its journalists “follows efforts that have been underway outside the Biden-Harris campaign for weeks now.” For example, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the party’s main campaign arm, has been tracking the views of several vice presidential short-listers when it comes to economic matters like the 2017 tax cuts.
So, who exactly is the DNC looking into?
Yesterday, The New York Times’ morning newsletter ranked Trump’s leading choices. In the top tier are two GOP senators and a Republican governor.
First is North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who ran against Trump in the GOP primary. The Times said Trump is attracted to Bargum mainly because of his wealth. Before running for office, Bargum “amassed a fortune from building billion-dollar companies.” Since North Dakota is an energy-rich state, and Trump has made it clear that issue is a priority for him, Burgum also has that going for him. The one drawback, according to The Times? “Burgum is relatively untested on a national stage” and he will “face questions about the abortion ban he signed into law last year that does not allow for rape and incest exceptions after six weeks of pregnancy.”
Also on Trump’s shortlist is Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who ran against him in the 2016 GOP primary. (Readers may recall that during that campaign, Trump referred to the senator as “Little Marco.”) The Times noted Sen. Rubio has been “a close adviser on foreign policy and other issues” and that “Trump likes the idea of having a Spanish speaker on the ticket to sell his hard-right anti-immigration policies.” The one drawback for Sen Rubio, according to The Times, is he has not worked hard enough to show Trump he wants the job. In fact, the senator was not “among the VP contenders who sat with Trump in a Manhattan courtroom during his trial” and he is “not a fixture at Trump’s rallies.” There’s also a not-so-insignificant constitutional issue. With Trump now a legal resident of Florida, any Electoral College votes for a Trump-Rubio ticket wouldn’t count on Election Day unless one of the two men changed their residency to another state. Florida’s 29 electoral votes, of course, are critical in nearly every presidential election cycle.
In contrast to Sen. Rubio, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the third member of Trump’s top tier according to The Times, has been a regular by Trump’s side. His drawback, though, may be his youth. He is relatively new to the national stage and, at 39, is “barely above the minimum for a president (35),” The Times noted.
The Times offered five other people who also remain on Trump’s shortlist. They are:
- Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, a decorated military veteran and a person Trump “views as one of his most effective defenders on television,” according to The Times.
- Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, a regular at Trump fundraisers. The Times also reported that “Trump has repeatedly asked his inner circle in recent days for opinions about Hagerty.”
- Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, another primary rival, who “fires up Trump crowds on the campaign trail” and “promises to woo minority voters.”
- Ben Carson, who was Trump’s secretary of Housing and Urban Development during his first stint in the White House and is well-liked by the former commander-in-chief.
- U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a staunch Trump defender. According to The Times, though, Stefanik may be too “rehearsed for Trump, who often riffs through his speeches.”
When Will Trump Decide On His Veep?
It will be a few more weeks before Americans know who Donald Trump has chosen as his running mate. In an interview last week with television personality Dr. Phil, Trump himself said he would wait until the Republican National Convention to reveal his pick. He said the same thing in an interview with Fox News.
Ultimately, though, does this choice matter, or is veep speculation just an interesting summer parlor game every four years?
As NBC News noted, “VP nominees have rarely played a large role in our presidential campaigns, with voters typically making up their minds based on who is at the very top of the ticket.” In the same article, however, NBC suggested this year could be different given the age of the two men who are running for president.
Analysts at Politico agree. The news outlet released a survey this morning gauging Vice President Harris’ popularity, noting, “Attitudes about Harris could play a more pronounced role in the campaign than with a typical vice president as voters assess handing another four-year term to the 81-year-old president.”
If the same holds for Donald Trump, there could be a lot riding on the decision he will make over the next four weeks.