The redistricting skirmish that we discussed in last week’s blog post has, this week, turned into a full-scale battle between Republicans and Democrats. In states around the country, both parties are jockeying to redraw the lines of U.S. congressional districts in order to maximize their potential to win (or hold) the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the November 2026 midterm elections.
Let’s take a look at what is going on, but, first, a reminder: redistricting the lines in any state matters because, right now, Republicans only control the U.S. House by the narrowest of margins. In fact, the GOP cannot lose more than two seats in the lower chamber of Congress and mainstain control of the House.
In other words, every district will matter when it comes to the outcome of next year’s midterm elections.
Texas: Ground Zero In Redistricting Fight
State lawmakers in Texas are the furthest along in their quest to redraw congressional lines. Republicans control the legislature in the Lone Star State and they already have written a plan to redraw district lines. They believe the outline could reap huge rewards, helping the party pick up as many as five seats in the U.S. House.
Republican statehouse leaders were set to bring up the new maps for a vote on Monday, but that vote never happened.
Why? There were not enough members of the state legislature present to vote.
To prevent the state legislature from moving forward due to a lack of quorum, more than 50 Democrats serving in the legislature have sought refuge in states where their party is in the political majority. On Monday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signed arrest warrants for these lawmakers, arguing that, by leaving the state, they have violated their oath of office.
Yesterday, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who faces a tough primary challenge this election cycle from Texas’ attorney general, further ignited this battle by requesting that the FBI take “any appropriate steps” to help local law enforcement bring back the Democratic lawmakers. President Donald Trump has said his administration is considering the request. Meanwhile, Sen. Cornyn’s challenger, Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) said he will ask the courts to declare the Democrats’ seats vacant beginning on Friday.
The exodus of Democratic lawmakers from the state is not the first time legislators have flown to prevent quorum. According to The Texas Tribune, the practice goes back to 1870 when “13 Texas senators walked out of the Capitol to block a bill giving the governor wartime powers, depriving the upper chamber of the two-thirds quorum required for voting.” The fleeing members eventually were arrested, and the legislature approved the measure.
The latest gambit is not even the first time state Democrats have flown to stop a redistricting attempt. A “2003 quorum break over a mid-decade redistricting effort ended with Democrats returning one by one.”
Will Other Red States Try To Redraw U.S. House Districts?
While not as far along as Texas, lawmakers in other Republican-dominant states are contemplating whether to redraw the lines of their congressional districts. Indeed, last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (Fla.) said he is “very seriously” looking at requesting the state legislature to act. Gov. DeSantis has argued the 2020 Census used to draw current districts was “flawed.”
Others could follow suit, even if they do so reluctantly.
According to Politico, the White House also is trying to pressure other red states to get on board. This morning, the Capitol Hill newspaper reported that, “in a dramatic escalation of its gerrymandering campaign,” Vice President J.D. Vance will meet with Gov. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) to try to convince him and GOP state lawmakers to redraw congressional districts. Until now, Politico said Indiana Republicans have “had no appetite for a costly and disruptive special session devoted to redistricting — especially as the state faces a budget crisis.”
The White House also may not stop with the Hoosier State, Politico reported. “I think they’re going to come into every state that’s got the possibility of [redistricting] happening,” Gov. Braun said. Other Republicans speculated to Politico that Vice President Vance may be dispatched to Ohio and Missouri to try to make the White House’s argument there.
Blue States Make Moves To Counter GOP Plans
While Democrats in Texas’ legislature are fighting back, leaders in blue states where that party is in the political majority are working on redistricting plans of their own.
In California this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) said he is working to on the matter. According to The Associated Press, the “draft plan that’s circulating aims to boost the Democratic margin to 48 of California’s 52 congressional seats … That’s up from the 43 seats the party now holds. … districts now held by Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa would see right-leaning voters shaved and Democratic voters boosted in a shift that would make it likely a left-leaning candidate would prevail in each race.”
Voters and state lawmakers would have to approve the deal. Gov. Newsom said votes on the plan would only be “triggered” if Texas’ redistricting attempts succeed.
In the Empire State, meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) appeared at a press conference on Monday with Texas Democrats. She pledged to explore “every option” to redraw New York’s congressional districts.
The Baltimore Sun has reported Maryland Democrats are weighing whether they can redraw their U.S. congressional districts. “Joining the fray could mean fast-tracking the creation of a new map of Maryland’s eight U.S. House districts — potentially in a way that would erode Republicans’ chances of winning any seats in an already Democrat-dominant state,” reporter Sam Janesch wrote. Politico noted that similar efforts to gerrymander that state’s districts have failed in the past, however. In fact, a “Democratic-led effort to carve up the lone Republican-held district in 2022 was squashed by a judge as “extreme partisan gerrymandering.’”
According to The Hill, many blue states may be held up by their own recent push to use independent redistricting commissions, which took the issue of redistricting out of the hands of state lawmakers. “The movement to set up nonpartisan commissions for redistricting caught steam over the last decade, with Democrats at the forefront of the movement,” The Hill noted. “Many in the party argued the commissions were essential to ensuring fair elections at a time when gerrymandering has led to fewer and fewer competitive contests on the federal level.”
California is one of the states that uses an independent commission to draw congressional districts, and so is New York. If Gov. Hochul were to work to amend the state constitution to change how maps are drawn, that plan would have to be passed in two consecutive sessions, which would miss the 2026 election cycle.
According to the website All About Redistricting operated by Loyola Marymount University’s law school, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, and Washington also use independent commissions to draw congressional district lines.
Can Congress Stop The Redistricting Battle?
Some U.S. House lawmakers already have had enough — and that includes Republicans who are battling to retain their U.S. House majority.
Yesterday, The Hill reported that Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) — one of the House lawmakers that is targeted by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan — asked U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to help end the chaos.
“Ultimately I think that the Speaker needs to step up and show some leadership here because even our own members in states that might in some theoretical way, mathematical way stand to benefit from new maps, they don’t like what’s going on either,” Kiley said in a television interview. “They don’t like the prospect of having their district broken up or having communities they’ve represented, been voted in by, taken out of their district.”
Rep. Kiley has introduced legislation that would block states from redrawing their congressional districts prior to the 2030 Census. “It’s not a good thing for either Democrats or Republicans,” Rep. Kiley concluded. “It’s certainly not a good thing for the country.” According to Politico, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has floated a similar plan.
Ultimately, it may not be state lawmakers, the White House, or members of Congress who settle this battle. While unrelated to what is currently happening in Texas, Indiana, California, New York, or any other state, last Friday the U.S. Supreme Court asked parties in a current Louisiana redistricting court case to file new briefs defending or opposing the creation of a second majority-Black congressional district violates the U.S. Constitution. As SCOTUSBlog reported, “The justices heard oral arguments in March in Louisiana v. Callais but did not ultimately issue a decision in the case before their summer recess began.”
Vox said the decision in this case could “remove one of the few remaining safeguards against gerrymanders.”