The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives were not in session last week (save for the Senate’s quick approval of the House-passed national security package), so things were relatively quiet in Washington, D.C.
On the campaign trail, however, they are heating up. Election 2024, after all, is now just a little more than six months away. Let’s take a look at where things stand when it comes to the race for the White House and for control of both chambers of Congress.
The Race For The White House
Unless something unexpected happens — and when two octogenarians are on the ballot for the first time in U.S. history, anything is possible — the 2024 presidential election will be a 2020 rematch between sitting President Joe Biden and the man he ousted, former President Donald Trump.
National polls have pegged the race as a virtual tie. Indeed, as of late April, the Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential polls had former President Trump leading by less than half of a percentage point, well within the margin of error. Donald Trump gains a few tenths of a percentage point when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. are factored in, but the race for the popular vote, at this point, is far too close to call.
CNN host and Washington Post writer Fareed Zakaria recently predicted President Biden would win the national vote by about seven million ballots, but also noted that margin doesn’t really matter.
Why? The electoral college, of course. A candidate must amass 270 state-based electoral votes, out of a possible 538, to win the presidency. As Zakaria explained, that fact means the race for the White House will actually come down to how approximately 150,000 voters in swing states decide to cast their ballots in November.
According to National Public Radio, the swing states in this year’s presidential election are: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Because Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes — in most states, the winner takes them all — those states also have some potential to influence the Electoral College outcome.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released last week found former President Trump leading President Biden in six of the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Biden led in one; he is up by two points in Michigan.
Meanwhile, a mid-April poll from Florida Atlantic University had the former commander-in-chief leading the current one by eight points in that state. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll from Minnesota that was released on April 10 had President Biden up by two points in that state.
Pollsters did not release any surveys in May from Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, or New Mexico, but the elections website 270ToWin predicts President Biden will win New Hampshire, New Mexico, and four electoral votes combined from Maine and Nebraska. Former President Trump is expected to earn five combined electoral votes from the two states that split their electoral votes.
If the actual outcome conforms to these polls, Donald Trump will once again be president come January 20, 2025.
Longtime Democratic adviser Doug Sosnik does not disagree with these numbers. He recently told Axios that President Biden has a very narrow, tough path to 270 electoral college votes. Why? Sosnik said Democrats can no longer count on carrying Michigan and that the Biden campaign should be worried about Minnesota.
While polls right now give an edge to the man who lost the presidency in 2020 there are potentially thousands of important caveats to that assessment: RFK, Jr. voters. As Axios reported, a national Quinnipiac poll released last week asked RFK, Jr.’s supporters who they would support in a two-way race without their candidate in it. Those voters broke overwhelmingly, 47 percent to 29 percent, for Donald Trump, meaning that if the scion of one of the country’s most prominent Democratic families stays in the race, polling strongly indicates that he would be a spoiler for … Republicans.
In addition to RFK, Jr., the Biden campaign might have another weapon in its back pocket: junk fees.
According to Politico, when White House officials were writing the president’s State of the Union address earlier this year, a poll came in that showed out of 180 actions the Biden administration had taken, going after so-called junk fees ranked as the third most popular. “With cost of living still front and center for voters, the administration’s focus on the matter has grown on multiple fronts,” Politico noted.
While the outcome of the White House race is far from certain, there is one certainty: voters will be hearing a lot about junk fees from the current commander-in-chief and senior members of his administration.
Now let’s turn to …
The Race For The U.S. Senate
The effort to keep control of the U.S. Senate always was going to be incredibly difficult for Democrats, not only because the margin in the upper chamber of Congress is so narrow (Democrats can only lose one seat and still retain the majority), but because the party simply is defending a wider expanse of territory this year. Of the 34 Senate seats on ballots in Election 2024, 23 are held by Democrats and just 11 are held by Republicans. (In contrast to the U.S. House, where each member is up for reelection every two years, in the Senate only one-third of the chamber is on the ballot every other year.)
According to Cook Political Report’s most recent analysis, not one of Republicans’ currently-held 11 seats are in danger. One reason is most are in states that rarely vote for Democrats. Republican candidates are pretty much a lock on seats in Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska (where there are two seats up for grabs), North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. Even in Florida, which has been a swing state in the past, longtime incumbent Sen. Mark Rubio looks unbeatable.
Democrats, meanwhile, are almost certainly likely to lose the seat that will be vacated by moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. The state’s popular Republican governor is running for that seat. Democrats also are in trouble in Arizona, where Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with the party, isn’t running for reelection, and Montana, Nevada, and Ohio, which are traditionally swing states.
Cook Political Report also has three other Senate seats, those in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as merely leaning toward Democrats. While two of those states have popular incumbents running (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), as noted above, they are clear toss-ups in the race for the White House. If one party has better turnout for their presidential candidate, it could sway the outcome of these races.
One bright spot for Democrats (and more on this topic in the section below as well) is fundraising. According to Punchbowl, Democratic donors gave a total of $151 million to House and Senate races through the ActBlue fundraising platform in the first quarter of 2024. Fundraising for Senate candidates is up 20 percent from the same period four years ago. For House candidates, it is up 29 percent. Democrats enjoy about a $100 million money lead compared to the GOP across all of each party’s fundraising committees.
Despite this clear and substantial advantage, when it comes down to it, because the party has so much more ground to defend, the U.S. Senate may be where Democrats have the toughest time cornering power in November.
Next let’s look at …
The Race For The U.S. House Of Representatives
Right now, Republicans control 217 House seats, compared to Democrats’ 212. (Rep. Donald Payne, Jr., a Democrat from New Jersey passed away last week, leaving a vacancy.) That means that, at present, the GOP can afford to lose just two votes, since 215 would constitute a majority if all lawmakers are present and voting. Upcoming special House elections should increase the GOP’s margin, but, in November, Republicans still would only be able to lose a handful of seats and keep the majority.
According to Cook Political Report’s most recent analysis, Democrats already are expected to pick up two seats — the new 2nd congressional district in Alabama and New York’s 22nd congressional district, which currently is occupied by Republican Rep. Brandon Williams.
Republicans, meanwhile, are not predicted at this point to steal away any seats from Democrats. Still, there are plenty of districts that may be ripe for a GOP takeover. Cook lists 23 seats currently occupied by Democrats as pure toss-ups or merely leaning Democratic. Republicans would need to convert just a handful of these to solidify their current majority — but, of course, they also would need to keep a lock on the 19 GOP seats that Cook says are vulnerable. If Democrats hold their toss-up seats and steal away a few Republican seats, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the presumed speaker-in-waiting, would rule the House come January 2025. And he wouldn’t need 15 rounds of voting to do it.
As noted above, one clear advantage for House Democrats is fundraising. Last week, Axios reported, “House Democrats and Democratic candidates have begun to dominate Republicans in fundraising as the 2024 election draws near.” Only one sitting House Republican, Rep. John James, has raised more than $1 million. He is defending Michigan’s 10th congressional district, which is considered a toss-up (but leaning Republican) by Cook. Thirteen Democrats running for the House have surpassed that benchmark, meanwhile. In all, of the top 20 fundraisers in competitive House districts during the first quarter, only two were Republicans.
While the race for control of the U.S. House also will go down to the wire, it does appear that Democrats have a slight advantage at this point.
To summarize: six months out from Election 2024, it appears that power in Washington, D.C. next year will be as divided as it is today. Still, with 187 days to go, anything can happen. And given recent political history, it probably will.