After sending a final $1.2 trillion fiscal year (FY) 2024 spending bill to President Joe Biden over the weekend, Congress has granted itself a well-deserved two-week break.
For U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), the recess is a much-needed reprieve. He is facing a challenge to his speakership, and more Republican House members not only have announced that they are retiring — some have said they plan to leave Congress early, a decision that will leave House Republicans with an even slimmer majority.
Here is how Washington Post congressional reporter Marianna Sotomayor summed up the situation this morning: “When the House returns to Washington next month, the GOP majority will have to govern under the pall of uncertainty.”
This week we take a look at the state of the House Republican majority and how recent upheaval may impact the congressional agenda when lawmakers return after their Easter recess.
Are Mike Johnson’s Days As House Speaker Numbered?
The 10-month saga over FY 2024 government funding levels on Capitol Hill, which divided Republicans in Congress and cost former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) his job, ended with a whimper on Saturday morning. While both parties claimed victories in the two “minibus” bills Congress ultimately enacted to fund the government for FY 2024, the objective truth is this: the federal government’s funding is on par with previous levels and neither bill contained significant policy provisions.
The reality that the GOP has very few legislative victories to claim is causing consternation among conservative House Republicans, so much so that some GOP lawmakers are ready to send Speaker Johnson off into the sunset like they did former Speaker McCarthy. The anger is compounded by the fact that, to get the spending bill across the finish line, Speaker Johnson worked with House and Senate Democrats (a necessity given divided control of the federal government), and left House conservatives out of the negotiating room.
Soon after it became clear the House would act on the final bipartisan spending bill, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a House Freedom Caucus member, filed a motion to vacate Rep. Johnson’s speakership, arguing he did not secure any policy victories or meaningful spending reductions in the two FY 2024 spending bills, and that he had violated House Republicans’ trust as a result.
While Rep. Greene did not take the additional, required, step of calling up the resolution, which would have triggered a mandatory House vote within just a few legislative days, she has promised to do so when Congress returns from recess. The Post’s Sotomayor said, “Though Greene’s resolution was meant to serve more as a ‘warning’ than a signal that a vote is imminent, it has forced Republicans to grapple with the possibility that they could again be without a speaker if critical legislation is not handled in a manner the far right approves.”
While many of Rep. Greene’s House Freedom Caucus allies have not publicly stated whether they would vote to remove Speaker Johnson next month, if the Republican leader brings legislation to the floor that conservatives don’t like, or is perceived to be working more closely with Democrats than the right flank of his caucus, the dominoes surely will start to fall. Again.
The Policy Landmines Speaker Johnson Must Traverse
Specifically, Speaker Johnson has indicated that, after recess, he plans bring up a contentious supplemental spending bill.
The Senate already has approved a $95 billion version of this bill, which funds Ukraine, along with military aid to Israel and Taiwan, but Speaker Johnson wanted to wait until the FY 2024 spending fights were over to take up this legislation.
As Punchbowl has explained, conservative Republicans do not like the Senate version of this legislation. (In general, Republicans have been divided on whether to provide additional aid to Ukraine.) In fact, Speaker Johnson has said he does not like it either, but he is limited in his capacity to alter it. He could, for example, take the Senate bill and tweak it, but the changes would have to result in a bill that is “similar enough that it can pass the Senate without triggering a back-and-forth between the two chambers.”
One thing conservative Republicans most certainly will demand be added to the supplemental spending bill are the border security and immigration provisions GOP lawmakers have been fighting for over the last several months. These policies include putting tighter restrictions on who could apply for asylum in the United States, new funding for enforcement at the border, and limits on how presidential administrations can use “parole” to allow migrants arriving at the southern border into the country. Democrats have uniformly opposed these proposals.
As a result, Senate Republicans abandoned this package of proposals when that chamber was negotiating the supplemental spending bill last month. It will be almost impossible for Speaker Johnson to make the same decision Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did, however. If border security and immigration provisions are not in the supplemental funding bill, House Freedom Caucus members, and potentially even a wider group of conservative lawmakers, certainly cannot be counted on to stand behind Speaker Johnson in a vote to remove him.
Democrats could save the speaker, however.
According to a report on Monday from the New York Post, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) has pledged to vote to table Rep. Greene’s motion if it comes up and other Democrats may back Speaker Johnson — if he brings up the Ukraine bill up for a vote. (Tabling the resolution would avoid a vote on whether or not to remove Johnson from the speakership.) And Suozzi isn’t alone. “If he does the responsible thing, which is allowing members of Congress to vote on a bill that will pass and that is in our national security interests, and subsequent to that a non-serious actor that doesn’t want to govern brings a motion to vacate, yes I would motion to table in that circumstance,” Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) told CNN.
Given, Speaker Johnson’s dwindling majority, this extra support would be essential.
Speaker Johnson’s Majority Keeps Shrinking
While dealing with a threat to his leadership, Speaker Johnson also is managing the reality of a seemingly ever-shrinking majority.
Already, 26 House Republicans either have announced they will not run for reelection, have lost primaries, or, in the case of former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), have been thrown out of the chamber. One of these lawmakers was replaced by another Republican in a special election. A second (Rep. Santos) was replaced in special election by a Democrat.
The retirements are bad enough news for the GOP’s chances in the 2024 election, but the majority is immediately in peril because some members are leaving their posts early — and without the potential for a special election. Other powerful Republicans are staying in Congress, but abandoning important posts.
That second category includes House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Kay Granger (R-Texas), who announced last week that she will step down from controlling that panel, which is generally viewed as the most power on Capitol Hill. Rep. Granger will continue to serve the rest of her term, however.
According to Roll Call, in a letter to Speaker Johnson, Chairwoman Granger said she would transition to an emeritus role after the House Republican Steering Committee selects a new chair for the panel. The decision could impact work on the FY 2025 spending bills, however, though Chairwoman Granger promised it would not. “Recognizing that an election year often results in final appropriations bills not getting enacted until well into the next fiscal year, it is important that I do everything in my power to ensure a seamless transition before the [fiscal 2025] bill development begins in earnest,” Rep. Granger wrote.
Meanwhile, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) is getting out of the House early. Last week, he said he would leave the chamber on April 19. Rep. Gallagher chairs the powerful House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
Under Wisconsin state law, the vacancy will not be filled until the November general election. And GOP Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado abruptly left Congress last Friday.
As Roll Call reported, after Rep. Gallagher’s resignation takes effect, Republicans will be down to 217 members in the 435-member House at least until special elections are held in California, Colorado, and Ohio later this year to fill seats that were previously held by Republicans. In a body of 435, 217 lawmakers is, of course, not a majority. Thankfully, for Speaker Johnson, Democrats currently occupy only 213 seats.
Even that margin may not be durable, however. As The Post’s Sotomayor reported this morning, “there are whispers among lawmakers that more [Republicans] are looking for the exits, possibly jeopardizing the majority.”
Regardless of whether more lawmakers leave early, the House Republicans’ majority is the narrowest one in the history of the chamber.
Ultimately, though, this slim margin may be what saves Speaker Johnson.
Again, here is The Post’s Sotomayor, writing this morning: “That historically narrow margin and their track-record of disagreements will make it nearly impossible for Republicans to agree on a candidate within their ranks and could force them to rely on Democrats — a notion the far right despises — to choose a moderate Republican as speaker — or even Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) if conservatives are not careful.”
In other words: Rep. Marjorie Greene should be careful what she wishes for.
To wit: Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who voted last summer to remove then-Speaker McCarthy, said he would support Rep. Greene’s motion only if Republicans can — before voting — agree to a candidate they can elect without the support Democrats. “I want the best leader we can have. I’m open to that. And if the best leader we can have is Mike Johnson — the best leader is not Hakeem Jeffries,” Rep. Burchett said.