The Race To Control Congress

While the national focus over the last several weeks has been on the shifting landscape in the presidential election — a new candidate (Kamala Harris) entered the race and another (Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.) suspended his campaign — the individuals vying for seats in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have been working hard to gain support from voters.

All 435 U.S. House seats are up for grabs this year, as are 34 seats in the upper chamber of Congress. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House while Democrats enjoy an even slimmer advantage in the Senate.

What does recent polling tell us about which party may control each chamber of Congress come January 2025 and the first day of the 119th Congress?

Let’s take a look.

Election 2024: The Race For The U.S. House

Republican lawmakers currently occupy 220 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats hold 212 seats. There also are four seats that are vacant due to three deaths (Democratic Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas and Donald Payne, Jr. and Bill Pascrell of New Jersey) and one resignation (Rep. Mike Gallagher, Republican of Wisconsin).

Using all 435 seats as a baseline, Republicans can only lose three seats this November and still maintain a 218-217 majority in the lower chamber of Congress. (There also are five delegates in the House who, together, represent the District of Columbia, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. While these representatives can offer input into legislation and can voice support for various bills, they have no vote on the House floor on matters of legislation.)

The Cook Political Report (CPR) is regarded as the gold standard for breaking down the state of congressional races. And, luckily, CPR just released fresh ratings for U.S. House races on Aug. 16.

According to CPR, there are 365 seats – or well over 80% of all House seats – where it is virtually certain the incumbent party or lawmaker will stay in power. Republicans hold 192 of those seats. (The safe GOP seats include the one vacated by Rep. Gallagher earlier this year that currently sits empty.) Democrats hold 173 of the so-called safe seats. (The three seats occupied by the late Reps. Payne, Pascrell, and Jackson Lee are considered safe for the Democrats.)

Those numbers seem to indicate Democrats have a tougher path to claiming a majority in the chamber this November, but “safe” seats hardly tell the full story.

Indeed, CPR predicts Democrats are quite likely to pick up two GOP-held seats: a new seat that was created in Alabama as a result of reapportioning after the 2020 Census and the 22nd Congressional District in New York. GOP Rep. Brandon Williams represents that district. He is in his first term and only won his 2022 election by a margin of 50.5 to 49.5 percent. Democrats in the state legislature also redrew Williams’ district (another result of the 2020 Census) so that it contains fewer registered Republican voters.

At this point, CPR does not predict Republicans have a lock on picking up any seats held by Democrats. If Democrats win New York’s 22nd Congressional District and the new seat in Alabama, then the party only needs to convert one more seat in order to win control of the House at the beginning of next year.

The potential for that outcome certainly exists. In addition to the two seats CPR thinks Democrats almost certainly will pick up, there are 29 others currently held by Republicans that are at least somewhat vulnerable. That list includes 11 seats that CPR lists as true “toss ups” — seats where it is impossible to tell which candidate currently is in the lead.

Of course, Democrats also have vulnerable seats of their own — 39, in fact, according to the latest CPR review. In addition to picking up three total GOP-held seats, Democrats would have to hold onto all of these districts in order for current Democratic Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to be sworn in as Speaker of the House in January 2025.

The election website RaceToTheWH.com, which, in 2022, was one of only two forecasters to correctly predict that Democrats would break historic trends and hold onto the Senate, says there is a 58 percent likelihood that Democrats will control the U.S. House of Representatives after Election Day 2025. Republicans have about a 42 percent chance. The Hill disagrees. The inside-the-Beltway newspaper says the GOP has a 56 percent chance of retaining the House. That number is down from 61 percent, however, when President Joe Biden was at the top of Democrats’ ticket.

Election 2024: The Race For The U.S. Senate

Democrats currently hold a majority in the U.S. Senate by a single vote. The chamber’s 47 Democrats are aided by four Independents who caucus, or generally vote with, Democrats. There are 49 Republican senators.

Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents currently occupy 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs on Nov. 5. Republicans are defending only 11 seats.

The map favors Republicans, but that news is not the only thing buoying the party’s prospects. The seats the GOP are defending this cycle are almost all in staunchly Republican states. As a result, nine of them are qualified by CPR as “solid” GOP seats. In other words: it is virtually impossible that a Republican candidate would lose in them. The other two seats, Sen. Ted Cruz’s in Texas and Sen. Rick Scott’s in Florida, are likely to remain in the GOP column, CPR predicts.

Fourteen Senate seats held by Democrats are also safe and one, an open seat in Maryland, is likely to remain with the party. Seven others — Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are only “leaning” toward Democrats or are true toss-ups.

Democrats clearly are on the defense in more territory.

One remaining seat, the one currently held by Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, is almost certainly lost to Republicans. If Democrats lose that seat – and only that seat – the margin in the Senate will be 50-50. When there is a tie in the upper chamber of Congress, the vice president casts the deciding vote. The chamber would have to turn to either J.D. Vance or Tim Walz in the event of a 50-50 split next year.

By virtue of the map this cycle, RaceToTheWH.com gives Republicans a 58 percent chance of taking over the U.S. Senate. Correspondingly, Democrats have a 42 percent chance of retaining power in the upper chamber of Congress. (The Hill has an even rosier prediction for the Republican party. The Capitol Hill newspaper says the GOP has a 67 percent chance to retake the Senate.)

How Are Eager Are Voters To Get To The Polls?

If you’ve been watching the headlines, you’ll have seen an uptick in enthusiasm by Democratic voters over the last several weeks. Polls indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining steam in the CPR’s key battleground states, which, for the White House, are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That news could boost Democratic House and Senate candidates’ chances in those states. (Seven of CPR’s true toss-up House races are in these states.)

A CBS News poll released earlier this month also shows more Democrats now plan to vote. On July 18, three days before President Biden announced his exit from the race for the White House, only 81 percent of Democrats said they planned to vote in November. In CBS’s latest survey, that number was 90 percent. Enthusiasm from Republicans fell, meanwhile. In the latest survey, 88 percent of Republicans said they plan to vote. Back in July, that number was 90 percent.

As Teen Vogue noted on Aug. 14, Vice President Harris’s entry into the races has lit a new fire under key Democratic voting constituencies, including younger voters. According to the magazine, “Fifty-six percent of 18 to 29-year-olds said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 38 percent said they would vote for former President Donald Trump, according to a national New York Times-Siena College poll of registered voters, conducted from July 22-24. A month earlier, Trump was leading Biden with the under-30 cohort in the same survey.”

Excitement at the top of the ballot could, of course, translate to better results for a party in its House and Senate races.

There is one other metric worth looking at when it comes to evaluating the race for the Senate and House: the generic ballot question. This query asks which party voters generally prefer to vote for when it comes to casting ballots for Congress. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls over the last month, Democrats have a slight advantage, 0.7 percentage points.

While that margin is very narrow, it is a considerable improvement for the Democrats from the end of July. Just a month ago, Republicans were up two to four points on the congressional ballot question. The GOP has led on this question throughout most of 2024.

There is still plenty of time left for candidates to change voters’ minds and for momentum to shift. These numbers could, of course, change over the next several weeks — especially given the presidential debate in September and the reality that the two parties must deal with significant issues (e.g., a potential government shutdown) when they come back from their August recess.

But, as of today, Democrats are pleased with their chances of retaking the House, Republicans feel confident about retaking the Senate, and it’s anyone’s guess which party will hold the White House next year.