This evening, members of the U.S. House of Representatives are expected to vote on a continuing resolution (CR) that would reopen the federal government after its longest shutdown ever. The Senate approved the measure Monday, so if a majority of lower chamber lawmakers give the go ahead – as is widely expected – the only thing standing in the way of ending the 43-day stalemate is President Donald Trump’s signature. (The commander-in-chief is expected to quickly sign the measure into law if House lawmakers approve it.)
What provisions does the CR include and how likely is it that House lawmakers will act today to advance the bill to the president’s desk? And, if they do, what comes next legislatively? We will answer those questions and try to assess the costs of the 2025 federal government shutdown.
What Did The Federal Government Shutdown Cost?
As The Associated Press reported, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the six-week shutdown would reduce economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 by about 1.5 percentage points, cutting growth by half from the third quarter. About $11 billion in economic activity would be permanently lost, the CBO determined.
Additionally, because about 650,000 federal workers did not work during the shutdown, analysts have said they expect the nation’s unemployment rate to go up by about 0.4 percentage points in October, to 4.7 percent from 4.3 percent in August, the last month for which a monthly unemployment report was released.
The Associated Press also noted that Tourism Economics, an economic consulting firm, “estimated that the shutdown would reduce travel spending by $63 million a day, which means a six-week standoff would cost the travel industry $2.6 billion.” Canceled flights also meant lost business for hotels, restaurants, and taxi drivers, The Associated Press reminded readers.
Even if a House majority approves the CR today, federal operations will not return to normal overnight. Indeed, yesterday U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy refused to offer a timeline for when air traffic control will be fully back online. He said his department would only roll back reductions in flights “when the data says we should.”
The shutdown also has left Americans feeling worse about the economy. As The Associated Press reported, “consumer sentiment dropped to a three-year low and close to the lowest point ever recorded in a survey by the University of Michigan, reported Friday, with pessimism over personal finances and anticipated business conditions weighing on Americans.” The University of Michigan’s reading was at 50.4, down 6.2 percent from last month and nearly 30 percent from this time last year. “Declining consumer sentiment can over time reduce spending and slow growth, though in recent years Americans have kept shopping even when their outlooks turned grim,” The Associated Press explained.
All of this may help explain why the impasse is finally about to be resolved.
What Is In The Continuing Resolution And Will It Pass?
The Senate-approved CR would:
- Fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture, and legislative branch operations through Sept. 30 2026;
- Fund all other federal agencies and functions through Jan. 30, 2026; and
- Retain more than 4,000 federal workers that the Trump administration had targeted for layoffs during the shutdown and prevent the Trump administration from firing additional federal workers through reductions in force until at least Jan. 30, 2026.
Democrats, with the exception of the eight senators who voted with Senate Republicans to break the filibuster of the CR, oppose the legislation, which means House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has very little margin for error when it comes to getting the CR across his chamber’s finish line in a few hours. If he loses more than two Republican votes, the federal government will remain closed.
The good news for Republicans is that President Trump and the House Freedom Caucus — a perennial thorn in Speaker Johnson’s side when it comes to federal budgetary matters — support the CR. Speaker Johnson also is likely to pick up at least one vote from a Democrat. Rep. Jared Golden (Maine), who was the only Democrat to vote in favor of the CR the House approved back in September, has signaled he will vote “yea” this evening.
Meanwhile, Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) is the only Republican who has announced his opposition to the bill.
“One wild card for Wednesday’s vote,” said The Hill this morning, “is attendance.” House Speaker Johnson called back the lawmakers on Monday, but lawmakers still had to “scramble to avoid flight delays and cancellations caused by air traffic controller staff shortages during the shutdown.” And, as The Hill concluded, “In the two-vote House GOP majority, every absence counts.”
What Comes After The CR?
After six weeks where little happened on Capitol Hill, lawmakers have a long legislative backlog, starting with the issue that caused the shutdown: extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits. As part of the deal to reopen the federal government, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) agreed to hold a standalone vote on extending the credits in December.
That agreement does not necessitate that Republicans actually agree to keep the ACA subsidies alive — and it does not require a vote in the House. Indeed, as of this morning, Speaker Johnson had not committed to holding any such vote at all. (As readers may recall, if Congress does not act, the credits will expire on Dec. 31, 2025, leaving millions of Americans with higher health insurance costs in 2026.)
Lawmakers also will need to decide whether to reauthorize the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer program, which is supposed to provide $6 billion in funding for small businesses involved in research and development. Funding for the program lapsed on Sept. 30. As Politico reported this morning, Senate Small Business Chair Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) has blocked the reauthorization “until lawmakers agree to changes that would prevent the funding from benefiting Chinese entities and other U.S. adversaries.” A bipartisan group of House and Senate lawmakers are pushing for a one-year extension while negotiations about a longer-term reauthorization continue. The House approved that plan in September.
Other items on lawmakers’ to-do lists:
- Legislation to set a regulatory framework for regulating digital assets;
- Approval of the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets policy and authorizes funding for the U.S. military and defense-related activities;
- Legislation that would ban members of Congress from trading stock; and
- Of course, a full year funding bill for the agencies and departments for which the CR only provides funding through Jan. 30, 2026.
Bobsguide outlined what the end of the shutdown could mean for financial services and financial technology companies. “The return of full operations at agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will trigger an immediate flurry of activity, impacting every regulated entity,” Bobsguide advised, reminding readers that “during the shutdown, most regulatory functions were suspended, including registration reviews, examinations, and new rulemaking.”
More specifically, Bobsguide noted:
- Agencies like the SEC and the Department of Justice (DOJ) will resume enforcement actions and investigations “with heightened urgency to meet statutory deadlines.”
- “The regulatory wheels, which ground to a halt on all non-essential activities, will now spin faster.” In fact, “agencies may attempt to accelerate rulemaking agendas to make up for lost time, potentially providing shorter windows for industry feedback on proposed rules.”
- Applications to register new entities can now be processed though firms should “plan for significant delays as staff work through a queue that has built up over more than a month.”
Earlier this week, Politico’s “Morning Money” speculated that, in particular, the pace of rulemakings at the SEC would hasten. “If last week’s off-season elections are any indication of how the midterms will go, the House — and maybe even the Senate — could be just a little more than one year away from flipping to Democratic control,” Politico said. “For [SEC Chair Paul] Atkins, that could mean less time crafting rules and more on Capitol Hill, perhaps in front of the Senate Banking Committee’s potential chair, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. (The Massachusetts Democrat, in case you need a reminder, has some long-running concerns with Atkins.)”
Former SEC officials agreed. “[Atkins is] definitely going to run into a time crunch,” one former commission employee told Politico. Before any of this activity can happen, however, the House must approve the CR that would reopen the government. Look for that vote around 8 p.m. ET tonight.