President Joe Biden’s decision to abandon his campaign to seek a second term in the White House marks the first time a sitting commander-in-chief has done so since Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Johnson, of course, decided against a second term when it became clear voters were increasingly disillusioned by the Vietnam War, and winning a second term seemed a remote possibility for Democrats. But some Democrats also compare President Biden’s decision with George Washington, who opted against a third term, which was constitutional until 1951 and the U.S. Constitution’s 22nd amendment, in part because he did not want to set a precedent for presidents refusing to cede power. But Washington had something else in common with Biden. As the experts at George Washington’s Mount Vernon historical site explain, observers at the time noted Washington “seemed considerably older” and that “the innumerable vexations he has met with in his different public capacities have very sensibly impaired the vigor of his constitution and given him an aged appearance.”
While our current President may find kinship with our first, his decision, made this past Sunday, sent shockwaves through the 2024 presidential race. What already has happened, what could happen next, and what does polling indicate about a potential Harris-Trump match up? Let’s take a look.
The Democratic Nomination: What We Know So Far
Almost immediately after he bowed out of the campaign, President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Other prominent Democrats quickly followed. Within 24 hours, Harris had secured the endorsements of former President Bill Clinton, former Democratic presidential nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and nearly three dozen Senate Democrats. (Prior to becoming vice president, Harris was, of course, a U.S. senator herself.) The number of senators endorsing Harris’ candidacy had grown to 43 by Tuesday morning. By that time Harris also had secured support from 186 members of the U.S. House Democratic caucus and 23 Democratic governors.
Vice President Harris picked up endorsements from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) Tuesday afternoon.
The Congressional Black Caucus also has endorsed Harris, and many of Harris’ would-be challengers for the nomination have also gotten in line. These party luminaries include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Sen. Joe Manchin has not yet endorsed Harris, but confirmed he will not seek the nomination. Two key unions, the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of Teachers, also have endorsed Harris.
Delegates to the Democratic National Convention, the party’s rank and file who will actually cast the votes that determine who the nominee is, also quickly moved to the Harris camp. Indeed, within a day and a half, Harris had secured enough delegates to win the convention roll call vote. (A nominee needs 1,986 delegates to formally secure the nomination.) At 9:45 p.m. ET on Monday, just 32 hours after President Biden resigned, The Associated Press declared Harris had secured the votes of more than the required delegates. While that milestone means Harris appears to be the Democrats’ choice to be the party’s nominee for president, she does not formally have the nomination in hand yet — but will soon. Yesterday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced it will move ahead with an early virtual nominating vote in the first week of August, completing the nomination process about two weeks before the Aug. 19 convention.
Vice President Harris has basically taken over the Biden campaign. She has adopted its headquarters and its staff as her own. She has formally hired Biden’s campaign co-chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez to lead the campaign, which will remain in Delaware.
We also know Harris is doing very well fundraising. According to The Hill, she raised a record $81 million in the 24 hours after earning President Biden’s endorsement, including 60,000 contributions from first-time donors to the Democratic ticket.
The Democratic Nomination: What Is Still Uncertain
Speaking of money, in addition to his endorsement, President Biden offered his $96 million campaign war chest to Harris, but that transfer may not be so simple. On Tuesday morning, the chair of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) suggested Harris may not be able to access those funds easily. “I think it’s really complicated, is the short answer,” Sean Cooksey, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump to chair the FEC, told National Public Radio. Chair Cooksey suggested such a transfer would be challenged by the agency and within the federal court system.
Reporters from The Hill, meanwhile, said campaign finance lawyers told them Harris would be able to access the funds once she becomes the Democrats’ nominee.
Another unknown: who Vice President Harris will select to be her own running mate. The following individuals are said to be on the shortlist:
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who hails from Indiana
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
- North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
When it comes to the Electoral College, Illinois is a virtual lock for Democrats already, as are Indiana and Kentucky for Republicans. Choosing Pritzker, Buttigieg, or Beshear may not help Harris improve her Electoral College chances, but locking up Arizona, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania certainly could.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has announced she will co-chair the Harris campaign, but also said she will remain as governor and not be the White House’s second-in-command. Michigan is, of course, another important battleground state.
It also is unclear what the Republican party’s main line of argument against Vice President will be. As The Hill put it this morning in a newsletter, “The Trump campaign script, envisioned to take aim at Biden, is under renovation.”
Yesterday, Punchbowl reported Speaker Mike Johnson suggested the party’s arguments would be about policy. “These are two competing administrations that you can set side by side. And people are asking themselves, ‘How was I doing during the Trump administration? How am I doing now?’” Johnson said. The National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC), meanwhile, has so far focused more on personality. As Punchbowl reported, an NRSC campaign memo Monday noted Harris sometimes laughs at “inappropriate moments” and loves Venn diagrams.
The General Election: What News Polls Tell Us
Before Vice President Harris had sewn up the number of delegates needed to be the Democrats’ nominee, Morning Consult fielded a poll that examined the party’s voters’ beliefs about the strength of possible nominees. Harris won this race too. Specifically, Morning Consult found a majority of Democratic voters think Harris has the best chance of victory in November. Among the 10 potential replacements for Biden, Harris performed best against Trump, though the former president still led her, 47% to 45%.
That number aligns with a poll released by Quinnipiac University on Monday. In that survey, Trump garnered the support of 49% of voters compared to 47% who prefer Harris. Fox News noted, “The former president takes a slightly larger lead in a hypothetical six-way race that includes other candidates such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with Trump coming in as the preference of 45% of voters and Harris garnering the support of 41%.”
Other polls fielded early this week also show the race is very tight, and at least one has Harris in the lead. Specifically:
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll has Harris with a two-point advantage, leading former President Trump 44%-42%.
- A Yahoo poll showed the race is tied 46%-46%.
- An NPR/Marist pollhad the former president up by one point, leading 46%-45%.
Harris’ entry into the race may be helping the Democratic party in terms of voter motivation, too. Morning Consult also found, after President Biden’s decision to drop out, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans, 27% to 24%, to say they’re “much more motivated” to participate in the political process this November.
This morning, the Harris campaign issued a memo listing other potential advantages. It even argued Harris is positioned to expand on President Biden’s success from 2020. The memo noted, for example, that Harris’ net favorability rating is 19 points higher than Trump’s among white, college-educated voters, and 18 points higher than Trump’s among voters who are older than 65. The memo also noted the majority of the roughly 7% of the electorate who say they have not made up their minds about which candidate to support are “disproportionately Black, Latino and under 30” — groups that traditionally vote Democratic and may have been withholding their support because of lack of enthusiasm about a second run by President Biden.
Still, according to an analysis by The Washington Post, “recent polls find little difference between how [Harris] and Biden stack up against Donald Trump.” In an average of 11 surveys taken after President Biden’s disastrous debate against Trump — when calls for the current president begin in earnest — Trump edged out Harris by 1.5 percentage points. That margin was “only slightly less than” Trump’s 1.9-point lead over Biden in the same polls.
Will those numbers change as the days wear on and if Harris is formally chosen as the nominee? Only time will tell.